🏆 - Five thoughts from the first-ever Gold Cup draw

The USMNT and CanMNT can't be thrilled to see each other again so soon!

Concacaf conducted a draw for the Gold Cup for the first time ever Monday night, a step in the right direction for the confederation in terms of putting the sport first rather than business interests. There’s still work to be done.

The inclusion of Qatar as a guest team scandalized many on social media Monday (though it’s not uncommon, Qatar was in the last Copa America and will be in the next one; Mexico often plays that tournament as well, and Jamaica took part in 2015 before its run to the Gold Cup final).

More of an issue is the venues still not being set. You can still expect Mexico to have a heavy home-field advantage should fans be allowed to pack into stadiums like we hope they will next summer. El Tri likely will be in the southwest, while the U.S. likely also will be in some friendly venues for group matches.

As with pretty much any event taking place during or - we pray - in the months after the pandemic draws to a close, there are many questions. If World Cup qualification is taking place around the same time, how will that affect rosters? What if the Olympics go ahead, will some countries

It’s also been so long since we’ve seen international matches in the region, it’s a bit tough to argue we can say who’s in form, who’s gaining speed. In European leagues and other sports we’ve seen the underdogs take advantage of favorites. Who knows if that trend will continue.

But, presuming these games happen and look something like we’ve come to expect Gold Cup games to look like, here are some quick thoughts about Monday’s inaugural draw:

No group is a cakewalk, but none are certain death, either

Draws are weird because they’re fun but also we rarely learn that much. Jamaica coach Theodore Whitmore, asked after the draw if Mexico or the U.S. was the favorite because of their star power, claimed that every team will be tough and whether group rivals Costa Rica or Suriname or potential semifinal opponents like those past champions, there would be tough matches.

It’s coach speak, but at the same time there’s a kernel of truth to it with this draw.

The top two teams will advance, so there’s some margin for error, especially with one team still undecided but few truly terrifying options taking place in the preliminary round.

In Group A and Group B, there’s a clear balance of power. Mexico will likely win its group, and the U.S. and Canada both should get out of theirs. In C and D, you could see any of the teams currently drawn in making a run, but Costa Rica is the heavy favorite to win C and D is a bit of a toss-up with the added mystery of what Qatar will look like after the Copa America.

There isn’t one group that really jumps out and makes you say, “Whoa boy. That one will be tough,” but none are cakewalks, either.

The United States and Canada can’t be thrilled to see each other again

It will be nice for the neutrals, but the North Americans being matched up against each other in the Gold Cup just a year and a half after the Nations League showdown that saw the Canadians top the Americans in Toronto but the U.S. returning the favor in Orlando to top the group and make the Nations League Final Four.

In the previous Gold Cup, Canada was grouped with Mexico, and coach John Herdman drew out a master plan that he felt would get his team to the semifinals. Despite defeat to El Tri in the group stage, it nearly worked out, only for Haiti to rally and dump Canada at the semifinal stage.

That’s surely a lesson for a young Canada team that then did not have Alphonso Davies with the Champions League experience he now has, and the fellow players in his generation will come in with more experience than last time around. The United States also looks like it will be stronger than last time thanks to its Europe-based rising stars, though it depends on how many of them are on the Gold Cup roster.

This looks like it will be a persistent matchup in the region for years to come, but it’s a bit unexpected to see it happen again so soon.

Fake rivalries on the table for El Salvador

In the international game, rivalries generally are organic and easily formed by location or geopolitics. Mostly it’s teams that border each other that are considered rivals.

But now and then you get a series of games between two teams that creates a fake rivalry, one that even supporters can start to feel is genuine. Think U.S. vs. Ghana.

There are a few of these that are on the table, none more enticing than Curacao against El Salvador. El Salvador beat Curacao at the last Gold Cup, but Curacao got a win and a draw in the next two matches and El Salvador collapsed against true rival Honduras to put Curacao into the knockout stage for the first time in history.

Of course, El Salvador’s truly excellent fake rival Montserrat also could still make it into the group with La Selecta. After playing each other in Nations League qualification, they ended up in the same Nations League group. El Salvador has won all three matchups, as you’d expect against a country with a population of around 5,000, but once won by two goals and twice by only one.

Premature prelim picks

Give me Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti and Guatemala to come out of the preliminary stage. Guatemala fascinates me because it’s been so long since we’ve seen them play top teams because of the FIFA suspension but they do have a fair amount of talent. We actually could learn a fair bit in their non-FIFA friendly Wednesday against Mexico (more on that to come later in the newsletter later this week).

Of course, Trinidad and Tobago is facing its own FIFA suspension, and if it’s not remedied before mid-December, Antigua and Barbuda will take its place. If that happens, it could be a soft team occupying the fourth slot in Group A compared to the other groups.

Hey, that was fine

I don’t think producing anything is easy during the pandemic, and Concacaf managed to produce an event that was totally fine to watch on television. It nodded at the tournament’s history, hinted at future success and managed to include a number of recognizable legends in the form of Alexi Lalas, Wilson Palacios and Jason Roberts.

I was pleased to see the draw planned out well (Qatar’s designation with a soccer ball was cool) and executed without too much fuss.

Perhaps I should expect more from Concacaf at this point, but don’t forget this is an organization that once had to adjust its Champions League draw after realizing the initial draw violated its own rules. This is a thing that really happened in 2013. Ah, Concacaf.