🏆 Martino's modifications & a day at The Office: What to watch for in Tuesday's WCQs
We're on the other side of the mountain
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The second half of the Octagonal starts tonight, when the last four World Cup qualification matches in the Concacaf region in 2021 will be played. After these games, it’s a nervous two-month wait for another three-match window in late January. Then it’s three more games in March.
That’s it. You either qualify for the World Cup in that spell or you don’t and, well, good luck in Nations League and in 2026.
Of course technically all matches are worth the same amount of points, but as teams jockey for position and there are more matches played than matches to come, the weight of these games is beginning to feel heavier and heavier.
Here’s what to watch for in tonight’s contests:
Will Martino modify Mexico’s makeup?
Tata Martino is consistent.
His Mexico teams have the same idea every time out and typically are set up in the same structure. It didn’t work against the United States on Friday and it didn’t really work when Mexico played Canada last month.
In both matches, Martino’s midfield was overrun, unable to cope with the speed of individual midfielders and the ways in which the opposing manager went after Edson Alvarez, the lone holding midfielder who can get trapped on an island if Hector Herrera and Andres Guardado aren’t back quickly enough after a change of possession.
Those veterans got the hook in a double-sub in the second half of El Tri’s draw with Canada and you have to wonder with the issues there and with sub-standard showings from Mexico’s fullbacks if Martino will opt for something different.
Dropping Alvarez between center backs Nestor Araujo, back from suspension, and Johan Vasquez and playing with wingbacks could shoe up Mexico in the middle and also give extra resources to the wide defenders who will need help slowing Alphonso Davies and Tajon Buchanan.
It’s not an easy choice. Canada has grown into a team that poses legitimate matchup problems even for a team like Mexico that is accustomed to having the personnel to resolve any problem another squad poses.
Also, it will be cold. I enjoy Canada fans beginning to get excited about Mexico playing in a difficult atmosphere because it’s been fun to watch the soccer culture grow in Canada.
That said, I found some of the exuberance a little funny. As someone who has covered El Tri for years, I can’t tell you how many times the team has turned up late for a match, not trained on the field where the game will be played and looked absolutely unbothered.
Will that be the case this time around? Maybe, maybe not. Davies himself has downplayed the idea Canada will gain a huge edge. He plays in Germany, Edson Alvarez plays in the Netherlands. Jonathan David plays in France, Raul Jimenez plays in England.
With few players regularly playing in Canada, and even fewer playing there when it’s cold and snowy, the conditions may weigh on both teams equally. The mental edge, and the advantage of playing a full qualifier on the same field days earlier, obviously work in the favor of John Herdman’s men.
Another day at The Office?
Speaking of atmospheres, Jamaica will, for the first time this cycle, have fans. It won’t be many with the government approving 5,000 vaccinated fans for this game - something the JFF is hoping soon grows.
For now, though, there will at least will be some fans rooting Jamaica on. The United States is flying high after a 2-0 win over rival Mexico, while the Reggae Boyz come in off the back of a
Unlike their meeting last month which resulted in a straightforward 2-0 victory for the U.S., Jamaica will be able to call on the services of Aston Villa attacker Leon Bailey, West Ham forward Michail Antonio, Derby County midfielder Ravel Morrison and Reading center back Liam Moore.
Like the last meeting, however, manager Theodore “Tappa” Whitmore remains on the hot seat. Jamaica’s leadership expects more from this team given the players listed above - and several who aren’t - playing at a high level.
“I think we have underachieved having invested so heavily in this program, both from the Gold Cup and into World Cup qualifiers, we have given them everything they’ve asked for,” said JFF President Michael Ricketts in a radio interview Tuesday morning. “They wanted a chef, we gave them chef to travel around with them. They wanted a video analyst … they wanted more persons from a medical perspective, we gave them that, they wanted two assistant coaches, a sports psychologist.
“We have invested heavily in this program. So, I do believe we have underachieved, and that is of some concern.”
Ricketts said the decision isn’t his to make, with the executive and technical staff needing to come together, but this is a game in which it seems only three points will do.
That’s not great news, since Jamaica has done little to correct its midfield issues. Despite missing midfielder Weston McKennie because of yellow-card accumulation, the U.S. should be able to overwhelm a midfield with little steel behind it.
The U.S. also will likely win the possession battle, with that midfield deficiency often resulting in the Reggae Boyz playing without the ball for large stretches and ending the match heavily beaten in that category on the stat sheet.
If the day at “The Office” as Kingston’s national stadium is known, ends with Jamaica heavily beaten in terms of goals as well, Whitmore may be packing up his boxes before the end of the year.
Panama sensing its opportunity
After rallying from two goals down to get three points in Honduras, Panama now is sitting five points clear of fifth-place Costa Rica in the playoff place and finds itself closer to the top three than slipping out of fourth.
The team senses its opportunity
“If we win the four games at home, we’re going to have the chance to be at the World Cup,” attacker Freddy Gondola said yesterday.
He’s right, and Panama has to now feel that not only is a spot in the playoff a possibility but that it could catch one of the North American teams currently in the top three slipping and sneak into the third position - not entirely unlike what happened in 2018 when Panama locked up the third spot on the final day.
It all starts tonight with a visit from El Salvador, which will be eager to get points and
El Salvador travels to Panama without a few regulars, with midfielder (and often captain) Marvin Monterroza missing because of a family matter. La Selecta already is without Joshua Perez, with the attacker injured.
They will not find a home team content to rest after the stirring rally against Honduras.
“We’re going to come out looking to score from the first minute tomorrow because we’re in front of our fans and you have to respect being at home,” defender Fidel Escobar said. “What’s the point of winning away if you don’t win tomorrow? That would be a shame for us. I know we’re going to win.”
If so, Panama will head into the new year not only with aspirations to have a shot at Qatar but with the desire to book their flight there without needing to play additional games.
Will Keylor save Costa Rica? Can Costa Rica be saved?
Hosting Honduras, Costa Rica should get Keylor Navas back in net after the star shot-stopper missed Los Ticos’ loss in Canada with an elbow injury.
It’s welcome, but the injection of experience could be too little too late.
The sports editor of Costa Rican newspaper La Nacion wrote a column published today titled “Mathematical self-deception to keep hope in the national team” in which he correctly points out that qualification to the World Cup still is possible but will require a fair amount of actual goals and results for Costa Rica.
Including tonight, the team does have four home matches left, including a direct showdown with current playoff-position holder Panama on January 27 to kick off the next window.
“Time is up. What we all have to do now is get better individually with what the manager is telling us to work collectively. We have four matches left at home. We have to win them no matter what to still be able to qualify for the World Cup,” said captain Bryan Ruiz, who himself has struggled to keep pace in several of the qualification matches.
“We have to win all the home matches this time around. We don’t have any margin of error and we have to start by winning tomorrow against Honduras.”
For Honduras, the response to Friday’s collapse will be critical. Even with a new manager with experience getting teams to the World Cup, Los Catrachos are sitting a full eight points behind fourth in the last slot and are coming off a demoralizing defeat, pulled from the jaws of victory.
It would be easy not to answer the bell. They must show they have the character to still compete. The math is even more difficult for Honduras, but three points in Costa Rica would put them level with at worst one other squad (Costa Rica) and at best with three (Jamaica and El Salvador). Friday only will be the nail in the coffin if Honduras lets it be.
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Back later this week with thoughts on how it all goes down!