⚽ Quickly taken: Concacaf WCQ thoughts ahead of the sandwich game
Is there still Conca-chaos in our future?!
It’s the weekend, but it’s anything but restful for Concacaf national teams taking part in the final round of World Cup qualification, with another four-match slate of games coming Sunday, just three days after Thursday’s big games.
Here are a trio of thoughts ahead of Sunday night:
In addition to today’s thoughts about how things stand after one match, premium subscribers to Getting Concacafed will get a game-by-game preview tomorrow looking at each team’s key man and where the match will be won. Go premium by clicking the big, green subscribe button below!
🥪 Timing is everything ahead of sandwich spot
It’s Saturday, which means college football day in the U.S. The college football podcast The Solid Verbal has a betting principle called the ‘Letdown, lookahead sandwich’.
This is a sneaky difficult game stuck in between a game that provoked some type of emotional response and one in which the stakes, again are high. Does this principle extend to Concacaf World Cup qualification? I think it might.
It’s just a guiding principle for bettors and those hoping to figure out what will happen in a given game. A team might not fall into the trap, and the best teams will make sure it doesn’t affect them.
The United States actually is one of the prime candidates to slip into this trap, with a trip to Panama in between a pair of home games against teams that are struggling out of the gates in qualification.
In addition to the long trip and coming off a thrilling 2-0 victory in front of a rocking Q2 Stadium, the U.S. will be missing at least a couple of their UK-based players who aren’t traveling for red list reasons.
The Americans have the depth to cover those absences, and Panama’s attack was the most subdued it’s been since the first round of qualification in a 1-0 loss to El Salvador on Thursday. But Panama will be rev-ed up for the Americans’ visit. The Rommel is never an easy place to play and U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter will need to have his young squad mentally prepared in addition to being tactically sound.
Other potential victims? Canada has a contest they should feel good about in Jamaica, but after getting a thrilling result in the Estadio Azteca and facing a must-win match at home Wednesday, it may be tough to get fired up for a closed-door contest.
Perhaps the arrival of Junior Hoilett, who brings with him not only talent but also experience, will help the team seamlessly chow down on the sandwich and move into the final game with grace.
🛫 There’s a long way to go, but…
It’s a tough Sunday for North American teams, but looking at the table after MD4 and thinking about the matches to come, it was tough not to think about the situation in March. That’s when the final round will end, three teams will start preparing for Qatar and another will be prepping for an intercontinental playoff.
Is it crazy to think that the standings then could look a lot like they do now?
There is some confirmation bias here. I predicted Mexico, U.S. and Canada as the top three before the ball got rolling, and it makes me feel smart to see those teams on top at this early stage.
But I’m not the only one thinking about the North American dominance. We Global’s weighted formula gives Canada the worst chance of the trio to qualify but even there they see only a 3% chance John Herdman’s men aren’t into at least the playoff.
What can change the trajectory for the Central Americans and the Reggae Boyz? You will be flabbergasted to know the answer is getting wins.
Costa Rica and Honduras still are seeking their first three points after their scoreless draw Thursday, but if Honduras pulls off another HAztecazo or Costa Rica defends home turf, either could launch right back into the playoff place and be within striking distance of automatic qualification.
Getting CONCACAFed subscriber D-Wall brings up a good point as well.
And it actually goes beyond simply playing at home. The Reggae Boyz won’t have fans cheering them on against Canada on Sunday but there’s very much the hope and expectation that Jamaica, like most of its rivals, will soon be playing in front of a crowd of fully vaccinated fans as soon as November’s visit from the United States.
Now, can one of those fans play central midfield?
Sorry. Too soon.
The schedule is important to take into account. Jamaica may have more points in the second half of the round than the first and Canada may lag when it makes trips to places like Honduras which haven’t always been kind to Canada.
That said, momentum is a real thing in WCQ campaigns and even looking from a purely analytical perspective, it may not matter how many home matches Jamaica has if it needs to make up a nine-point gap to the automatic places.
This is Concacaf. Only a madman would predict things play out in an orderly fashion. The three North American teams running the table from here feels too perfect, too clean. Yet, it’s been tough to watch the on-field product and come to any conclusion other than that trio being the class of Concacaf at the moment.
🤬 Oh yeah, those coaches are still on the hot seat
Prior to Thursday’s matches, we talked about the coaches who may not make it to the November matches: Jamaica’s Theodore “Tappa” Whitmore, Honduras’ Fabian Coito and, potentially, Costa Rica’s Luis Fernando Suarez.
Jamaica lost to the United States, 2-0, and now has a critical match at home against Canada while Honduras was unable to find a way past Costa Rica goalkeeper Keylor Navas, drawing 0-0 and now heading to the Estadio Azteca, where Los Catrachos have won exactly once all-time.
Coito’s decision not to bring in Anthony Lozano or Rubilio Castillo to bolster the attack was even more strange with the manager saying Alberth Elis has an agreement with his club Bordeaux to play just 70 minutes per match.
More than 75% Elis is better than 0% Elis is certainly preferable, but it handcuffs the coach and also can play a strange mental game on the player.
While Coito received backing from federation officials before the window it came in an interesting manner to give a vote of confidence.
“The support for the manager is unconditional. The national team committee and the executive committee, we’ve met and have faith that his work will bear fruit. Hopefully it will be seven or nine points,” Honduras federation president Jorge Salomon told reporters last week.
Which, whoa! “Yeah, we’ve got this guy. It’s all good.” is nice to hear but then the kicker, “We’ve all met and we’re hoping for an undefeated October,” is something different.
Whitmore’s target for points this window was five, something that he will not be able to achieve should Canada top the Reggae Boyz in Kingston.
Officials in the JFF and the Fenafuth better hope WhatsApp doesn’t go down again this week. They may be sending a few inquiries.