⚽ Quickly taken: Four thoughts between WCQ MD9 & MD10
It's No. 1 v. No. 2 Sunday + Is Costa Rica set to make a run?
There are just two days of rest between Thursday’s critical World Cup qualification matches and Sunday’s equally critical contests.
Those of course are days of “rest” as teams travel to their matches, work on recovery, analyze the game plan, find the opponents’ weaknesses, speak to the media and walk the field at the stadium.
Undoubtedly, we’ll see some teams utilizing different personnel while others will ask their top stars to give as much effort as possible to get results in Sunday’s games. Then, it’s time for a luxurious two additional days off before Wednesday’s matches.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. Here are four thoughts after Thursday’s matches and ahead of Sunday’s games:
No. 1 vs. No. 2 another chapter in fledgling Canada-US rivalry
The best rivalry in Concacaf is United States vs. Mexico. The exciting rise of Canada, the undefeated current leaders in the World Cup qualification table, has produced another pair of rising rivalries adding spice to the final round of qualification.
The first is Canada’s surprisingly vigorous rivalry with Mexico, thanks to the Gold Cup semifinal and a pair of tight WCQ matches. The second is a more natural rivalry with the neighboring United States, stretching back to the North American nations landing in the same Concacaf Nations League group and Canada earning its first win against the U.S. since 1985 in that competition.
The World Cup qualification streak goes back even farther. Canada’s last victory over the U.S. in WCQ was in 1980 ahead of the 1982 World Cup in Spain (though they’ve somehow only met three times since then).
Obviously, lots has changed since the early 80s. Canada was impressive Thursday in Honduras, coping with the Catrachos’ attack without much difficulty and getting strong attacking contributions from Tajon Buchanan and Jonathan David to earn a comfortable win in their first trip to Central America.
“We bent a little bit, but we didn’t break, and that’s I think the story of the identity of this team,” Canada manager John Herdman said after the match.
The U.S. has taken more criticism than Canada this cycle, but to me that feels simply a product of expectations. The Americans sit just one point behind Canada in the table, scoring two fewer goals to this point and losing one match, a slip-up in a difficult Central American trip of their own.
While they didn’t steamroll El Salvador last night, they were relatively comprehensive in victory, limiting scoring chances for La Selecta and putting themselves in positions to score.
While neither Herdman or U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter would say they were pulling a few punches ahead of this game, the middle in a three-match set, my hunch is they’re looking forward to this one.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Anthony Kaye, who was in risk of a yellow card suspension and didn’t dress for Canada’s win in Honduras, available, with other personnel modifications likely in the midfield and attack.
Berhalter, too, had to feel forward Jesus Ferreira gave his team the best chance to beat El Salvador. “The Cheetah” was solid but I wonder if he turns to Ricardo Pepi or Gyasi Zardes, and if those players are better able to connect with Christian Pulisic, who had a rough night in Columbus.
Whether Canada flexes its muscle and moves further clear at the top, the U.S. gets three points and re-establishes its hegemony or the teams share a point (and potentially get jumped by Mexico) it should be another chapter in a rivalry that only is just beginning but sets up to be one of the best in the Americas in the not-too-distant future.
One rueful side note: It’s a shame more people in the U.S. won’t watch it.
The home federation sets the time for the match, and with the game taking place on a turf field in a cold-weather climate, there’s logic for Canada’s decision for a day game.
Yet, it means it’s going against the National Football League’s AFC Championship (Go Chiefs), bumping the game from a potential CBS slot to the Paramount Plus streaming service.
Whether or not you like the NFL, there’s no doubt it’s a ratings behemoth that brings all the eyeballs. The casual sports fan Sunday will opt for football. Hopefully it’s a game for the ages that us hardcores enjoy live and others catch up with via highlights and media coverage.
Hope for Costa Rica?
Costa Rica secured an enormous 1-0 victory against Panama, and the headline from that match understandably is that the Ticos are still alive, scratching for that fourth place spot Panama currently is in.
Bryan Ruiz scored the goal, and Costa Rica has to get credit for fighting for the result.
Yet, watching the match it felt like yet another Costa Rica game following largely the same script. Panama had 74% of the possession and was able to find scoring chances but couldn’t convert - sometimes thanks to Keylor Navas making good saves, other times because of their own inability to capitalize on, erm, clear-cut scoring opportunities.
Costa Rica now goes to Mexico, facing not only a team with a deeper squad (in a place where they haven’t won a World Cup qualification match since the famous Aztecazo…that was 20 years ago) but also goes into altitude against a squad with a fresh Hirving Lozano and potentially recuperated Raul Jimenez in the attack.
“I think tiredness is, ultimately, mental. We’ve got to be prepared for the game that’s coming. We’ve got to be at 100% no matter what,” Costa Rica attacker Joel Campbell, who plays his club soccer in Liga MX, said after the Panama win. “Mexico is going to push us to the limit, and if we want to go to the World Cup, we’ve got to push there.”
“We’re getting closer to those first four,” he continued. “The first thing you have to do is win at home, then steal points on the road. We’ve got to get back those points we lost at home in Mexico. It’s tough, but I’m confident in this team that we can do it.”
I’m not entirely convinced that’s the case, but in an interesting twist both teams have games left this window in Mexico and against Jamaica.
Temperature check in Panama
Speaking of Jamaica, Panama has a game that now is crucial to hanging on to its fourth-place spot, and a must-win for the Reggae Boyz if they want to have any hope to jump into the qualification places.
Both countries are coming off disappointing results, with Jamaica and new manager Paul Hall perhaps more frustrated in their recent showing than Panama.
“I think as long as there is a mathematical chance, we are OK," Hall Thursday. "What I want to see from the players is that we can go somewhere and we can get a result.
“I will always, until the last minute, tell the players, 'Let's go for the game, let's go for the win.”
That was tougher to do against a Mexico team with more depth, even despite El Tri’s absences because of injuries, Covid and suspensions. It may be tough to do as well against a Panama team that has been together much longer than this Jamaica group and will have the Estadio Rommel Fernandez backing it.
Yet, it’s also possible Panama begins to feel the pressure. There are expectations after they followed up their 2018 qualification with a good start, and the questions in Central America were more about jumping into the top three than falling out of the top four altogether.
It’s still Panama’s place to lose, but it wouldn’t feel nice at all to lose it.
“It’s time to turn the page and look forward to what comes next, which is Jamaica,” forward Rolando Blackburn said. “We have to take advantage of the home-field.
“We’ve got to keep working in training, be sharper in this match,” he continued.
“There’s no margin for error.”
A dead rubber?
It’s tough to imagine Honduras vs. El Salvador on Sunday ending up being about anything more than pride.
That pride still will be there. This is perhaps Central America’s most intense soccer rivalry (something, something, Football War, something), and certainly for El Salvador it would be massive to even score a goal in San Pedro Sula, as El Salvador never has been able to score in a WCQ in Honduras.
Yet, neither side will qualify for the World Cup.
The narratives around the teams are totally different. El Salvador, with their energetic style of play and lack of success in recent cycles, has been praised by writers like me who see something fresh for La Selecta.
In short, I agree with Toodles McToot here:
El Salvador seems to be moving in the right direction, with youth programs being bolstered both in men’s and women’s soccer and recruitment and development efforts expanding under sporting director Diego Herniquez.
For Honduras, there has to be some way to get the young generation of players who are continually qualifying for the Olympics and impressing at the youth level to take the jump to the next level. While Alberth Elis and Anthony Lozano are performing well in European clubs, the domestic-based defense isn’t ready for the challenge of international play when they’re used to trying to shut down attackers in the Honduran league week after week.
Is it the manager? As Diez put it, “With Coito and with Bolillo, we keep embarrassing ourselves”
At least with Coito it seemed there was a long-term plan. Gomez was brought in as something of a quick fix.
That hasn’t worked. It’s time again to look to the future.