⚽ Quickly taken: Mexico's miserable month, Panama's playoff hopes & more from the November window
Looking back!
The next time Concacaf teams play official matches, it will be a World Cup year.
It’s disorienting how quickly we’ve gotten to eight matches, and yet, despite now having a totally reasonable two months between FIFA dates, seems like an eternity until games resume.
It may not feel like an eternity for Canada, on top of the table for the holidays and as we close out 2021.
Here are a trio of thoughts from last night’s matches and the November window as a whole.
Jump in:
🇲🇽 Month marred for Martino, Mexico
Getting the tone right when analyzing the Mexico national team is difficult. The takes are so hot, the discourse so loud that it can be tough to hit the right note.
The sky is not falling for El Tri. In addition to still being in the automatic places to qualify for the World Cup, Mexico has more matches at home than any other team in the top half of the table.
Whether or not they choose to play at the Azteca or elsewhere, Mexico’s home-field advantage is strong when there are fans in the stands (which there will not be for at least the next home match against Costa Rica and likely the one following against Panama.
Still, the opportunity to get points in Mexico is there. This always was going to be the most difficult stretch for Mexico in the Octagonal. While the ‘wow it’s cold’ angle feels overblown to me even after the match, the U.S. and Canada are clear contenders for automatic spots. Visit them in Miami and Toronto or Cincy and Edmonton and it’s going to be a tough day out.
There is, however, plenty of reason for Mexico fans to be concerned and angry as well.
Mexico actually played an OK first half, despite not putting any shots on target in the first 45 minutes. The hosts largely were kept in check before getting a breakthrough just before the halftime interval thanks to mistakes by Orbelin Pineda (to give the ball away) and Guillermo Ochoa (to give up a tasty rebound for Cyle Larin to finish).
But it didn’t answer the bell in the second half, conceding again and only showing a response in the last 10 minutes in a classic “Why didn’t you play like that the whole game?!” situation.
While Martino did modify his formation and tweaked his tactics, he continues to be stubborn with his squad selections. It certainly feels like El Tri could’ve used not only Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez but also left back Gerardo Arteaga and winger Diego Lainez in this window.
He also has played it perhaps a bit too cool after games. Martino is not going to change, and he says he understands rivalries like the one against the United States.
I believe him. He experienced huge matches first hand, whether it was Newell’s Old Boys vs. Rosario Central, Barcelona vs. Real Madrid or Argentina vs. Brazil.
Yet, he’s yet to tap into the vigor that can come from those types of games. Martino notes Mexico lacks intensity, but where is his fire before and after big games?
I’m not asking him to put ashes on his face after each defeat, but he could help his case by doing more than just nodding at the context around the matches.
One thing maybe getting lost in the Mexico diagnosis: Canada is good.
While it seems like a punishment, going the long way in World Cup qualification has meant time together for a young team clearly connecting with each other on and off the field. Thrashing Aruba might not teach many lessons, but Canada did see off challenges from teams like Suriname and Haiti before arriving to this final round. All in all, it’s a 2021 for the ages for Canadian soccer.
🇵🇦 Putting Panama in perspective
It was a great window for Panama, which came away with six points thanks to the historic comeback to beat Honduras and a less-historic comeback to top El Salvador.
After an embarrassing early goal that El Salvador winger Jairo Henriquez scored thanks to a blunder from Panama center back Andres Andrade, Panama was dominant, looking for an equalizer and a winner that ended up coming within seconds of each other.
“I’d like to score first, but it shows the character of the team,” Panama manager Thomas Christiansen said after the match. “There was no conflict within the team at halftime, I just told them we had 45 minutes in the second half. That gave them the confidence to continue like they did in the first half with balls that hit the post and a lot of attacks.”
Panama dominated the game at the Rommel, but it’s still a concern it keeps giving up these leads and playing from behind.
The good news for Panama is they may have been the team coping with the most injuries this window and will hope to get back to something resembling full strength in the near future.
Center back Harold Cummings, winger Alberto Quintero and attacker Edgar Yoel Barcenas all could be back next window.
The advanced numbers also like the chances Panama is taking, and look how difficult their defense has been to break through.
They have to keep that pace up because if they gift goals to Costa Rica and Mexico on their two away trips in the next window, it’ll be much more difficult to turn around than this month’s matches.
🇨🇷 Ticos trudge toward big showdown
I was ready to put the nail in the coffin, risk the wrath of being featured on the Costa Rican version of @FreezingColdTakes and say the Costa Rican hopes of qualifying for the World Cup were officially dead.
Only three points would do against Honduras, a team that tasted victory zero times during the first half of qualification and one that, despite some subtle improvements, still looks like the clear worst team in the final round.
Luis Fernando Suarez’s men found those three points, with this headed goal from Gerson Torres, spurred on by the creativity of Joel Campbell, good to secure the victory.
Suarez made some of the changes it had become clear he needed to make against Canada but stuck with basically the same roster for the match against Honduras, bringing in fit left back Ronald Matarrita and goalkeeper Keylor Navas.
With three defensive midfielders in the starting XI, though, it once again resulted in a team with few ideas going forward, which might work out playing for a point away but isn’t the answer at home. Campbell is the only dynamic player Suarez seems comfortable giving more than a cameo, though note that Torres and Johan Venegas, into the contest v. Honduras in the 86th and 78th minutes, combine with Campbell to create the scoring opportunity.
Costa Rica’s next match, a home date with Panama, will be both a good test and fantastic opportunity. A win puts the playoff position within grasp as soon as the January window. A loss may mean that nail actually is ready to go into the coffin.
We’ll certainly talk about, but I’m taking a few days to rest. Next newsletter will be the usual #MexicoMonday for premium subscribers featuring coverage of Liga MX’s ‘Wild Card Weekend’ plus the Conca-catch-up.
Here’s your capper, in which Michail Antonio roasts his own teammate with this edit:
I think you're right on the CR win being big, not only for CR itself, but for the top 3 in the table in that we are much more likely to see a spirited CR team going for 3 points against Panama in January now than we would have if they were 7 points back of them.