👀 Siempre hay revancha, 'Bolillo bounce' & more
Five things to watch for in Concacaf WCQs tonight
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It’s tonight!
Concacaf World Cup qualification returns for the November window with a handful of marquee matchups tonight including, of course, the latest chapter in the U.S.-Mexico rivalry.
We also cross the halfway mark of qualification tonight. Panic for teams not reaching their potential becomes much more reasonable when there are fewer games ahead of you than games you’ve already played.
Before the joy or the fear sets in, let’s talk about five things to keep an eye on tonight, from El Salvador to Edmonton. Pack your beanie! -
Will Friday’s WCQ have anything in common with summer U.S.-Mexico matches?
“Siempre hay revancha.” In soccer, there’s always a chance for revenge. It’s a saying in Latin America because it’s true.
The United States has twice beaten Mexico this summer in critical matches, you may have heard, but here’s an opportunity for Mexico to get its revenge in a World Cup qualification match. Many have chronicled the importance of this game, the fact that it’s likely the last of its species in a lot of ways.
With North America hosting the 2026 World Cup and the field expanding, leading to more berths for Concacaf teams and less pressure for some of the giants of the region, this may be the last U.S.-Mexico on American soil with these stakes.
Are all those factors weighing on the mind of the members of the Mexico national team? Not really, according to manager Tata Martino. They just want to win.
“For three years I’ve been hearing that Mexico has to go out to look for the fifth game at a World Cup as the goal. Imagine how counterintuitive that goal is when you think about going out to look for a draw in World Cup qualification, beyond the opponent,” he said when asked if he’d settle for a point on the road tonight. “We never think about a game without a desire to win it and we’re not going to think about tomorrow’s match thinking about a tie.”
There no doubt will be plenty of differences from the other meetings. For one, personnel is a massive factor. Christian Pulisic won’t start for the Americans, while Mexico has a bit of a center-back crisis on its hands with Hector Moreno looking unlikely to start because of a knock, Cesar Montes not in camp with an injury and Nestor Araujo suspended for this game because of yellow card accumulation.
That will mean a player with little international experience, like Johan Vasquez, getting a start, perhaps next to extremely experienced Julio Cesar “Cata” Dominguez, who has been a surprise inclusion in the Mexico team this cycle at age 34 and with his international career seemingly finished years ago.
There’s also the midfield battle, with the now consolidated U.S. core of Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah and Tyler Adams going against a much more experienced but perhaps less energetic Mexico trio of Hector Herrera, Andres Guardado and Edson Alvarez. HH and Guardado must find their classic form, not what they showed against Canada last month in a nervous draw for El Tri, if it’s going to be a night to remember for Mexico in Cincinnati.
The teams will move on after the match knowing there’s another qualification match coming at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on March 24. Revenge is sweet, but it’s even better if you don’t have to seek it.
Who will take inside position for playoff slot?
The opportunity is there for a team to run away with things at the top this window. Mexico could win both matches over its direct rivals in the top three and put things nearly out of reach. Canada could pin a first or second loss on El Tri and potentially even move to the top of the heap.
What seems more likely is some mix of results for the North American teams and a team establishing itself as the playoff favorite in this window.
El Salvador hosts Jamaica on Friday looking for three points that could kick off a big push for fourth.
“This game is key to still be in the fight,” El Salvador manager Hugo Perez said. “When we come back in January, we want to be close to the fight for fourth place.”
Jamaica wants to do the same, and while there is thought about the overall strategy for both matches this month, there also is a sense that there’s opportunity to start climbing the table.
The Reggae Boyz are coming off a victory in Honduras and this month have a number of players who were unavailable in October. They also have five home matches left, including the match Tuesday against the U.S.
“It’s good to have all the players at our disposal. We welcome a fit Leon Bailey,” said Theodore “Tappa” Whitmore, the Jamaica manager. “So far, he’s been through the training sessions. We know what Leon Bailey brings to this team, and I think the execution will be key tomorrow.”
None of that matters if Panama can hold off the charge, or if Costa Rica shows surprising signs of life in Canada, but these teams see that they’re not that far away from continuing the World Cup dream.
Speaking of Panama…
Will Honduras experience a ‘Bolillo bounce’?
Panama should enter this window feeling good. Through six matches, Panama has suffered just two defeats and sits in fourth, good enough to make the playoff as the team looks to make the World Cup again after qualifying for the 2018 tournament, the first in the history of the Central American nation.
Fans are allowed in the stadium for Tuesday’s match against El Salvador, with FIFA agreeing to allow fans while it considers the country’s appeal against the penalty for fan behavior in September matches.
In addition to all that, the first match is against Honduras, the team currently sitting last in the table and one yet to get a win in qualification and has just one point from three home matches.
The mood in Panama, though? It’s somewhat fearful.
Yes, Honduras has disappointed, but Los Catrachos have changed manager.
They brought in not just a coach with pedigree in the region and a history of getting teams to the World Cup, they brought in the manager who may know Panama best: Hernan “Bolillo” Gomez, the coach who took Panama to that historic World Cup in Russia.
Honduras feels it has the right man for the job, and its attack almost certainly will look better with the addition of Anthony “Choco” Lozano and Romell Quioto, back fit and ready to combine with Alberth Elis up front.
Gomez downplayed the knowledge he has of the Panama team and also gave credit to the Dely Valdes brothers, who led Panama before his arrival, for helping get Panama to the World Cup.
“When people say I know Panama, you have to know that for me the most important thing is to know Honduras, to make Honduras better and make it clear what we’re going to do in this game,” he said Thursday. “Apart from all that, Panama has a good team, great players and has had a good (start to) qualification.”
Will Gomez stick with his typical 4-1-4-1 system or will he utilize something different with La H? All he would offer before the match is that Maynor Figueroa, the 38-year-old fixture of the Honduran back line will start.
The fact that Figueroa, a player whom I have covered for years and enjoy both chatting with and watch play, continues to be an immovable starter shows that while Gomez will bring fresh ideas and the know-how for getting a senior national team to the World Cup that his predecessor lacked, it’s still international football. There’s no big signing Honduras can make that will shore up its defense. Gomez has to work with what he has.
If he can somehow engineer results despite a cupboard that looks relatively bare, it won’t just be Panama fearing Honduras going forward.
How will the less intense window change strategies?
Managers, especially of less-deep teams in Central America, already surprised me with their lack rotation even when playing three matches in one FIFA window. This November window is the first and only time in the pandemic-compressed qualification cycle that teams will play just two matches in a window rather than three.
But, when you look at the squads managers have called in November, for the first time you’re seeing big changes. That makes sense. Most managers aren’t going to drop a player after one bad week, but if he couldn’t do the job in September or October? It’s time to make a change.
In this window, while the same pressures exist, it’s reasonable to expect a player to put in a full 90 minutes Friday and do the same Tuesday after three days of rest.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see little rotation. Two games instead of three also allows for increased study of each opponent, and it’s possible a manager has spotted something on film he feels allows him to do something different, tactically or with his roster decisions.
For Friday, it means we’ll generally see the best teams have to offer, which should make for some great games.
Hey, uh, can I borrow some hand-warmers?
Canada has an enormous opportunity with a pair of home games in the ‘quick’ window and opted to put both games in Edmonton.
I have no quibbles with that. Edmonton seems to be a vibrant if off-the-radar city, it’s where your best player calls home and, while I have no interest in participating in the debates about regional bias in my Twitter TL every time Canada Soccer announces any venue, it does feel to me like Canada - specifically this men’s team that is setting alight so many hopes and the women’s team that just won the gold medal - could get more creative with their destinations.
Let’s not kid ourselves, though. Part of the logic behind putting games against Costa Rica and Mexico in Edmonton is the same logic that sees the U.S. camp out in one of its 50 states (and one of the least Latino) for a pair of games this cycle.
IT’S COLD!
Though, to be fair, not as cold as I was expecting it to be when the games were announced. It may not dip below freezing tonight and, while Tuesday could be bitterly cold, the threat of snow looks to have dissipated.
Even so, it’s not clear how much of an edge Canada will gain from a cold-weather environment, especially against Mexico whose top players are playing in the same climate conditions as Canada’s top players in Western Europe.
"The weather is going to be a challenge even for us Canadians but especially the Costa Ricans and Mexicans, it’s going to be a challenge for them," Davies said in a Zoom call with reporters before traveling. "Us Canadians we're used to it so hopefully the weather plays a part in our favor."
What almost certainly will be helpful is the boost Canada gets from near-sellout crowds at Commonwealth Stadium, with around 50,000 expected at both matches.
“When you go to Edmonton, you genuinely feel the whole city’s behind you,” Canada manager John Herdman said this week. “The fans are no different. You can see how quick the tickets were selling out. Getting into that stadium and potentially feeling 50,000 people at your back? Oh, I’m sure it’s what “Phonzie”’s dreamed of and these men, I don’t know if they’ve played in front of 50,000 Canadians. Some of them will have never experienced that before.
Perhaps more critical than whatever home-field advantage Canada is able to get is the fact that they head into tonight’s matchup with a talent advantage. That might be true even if Costa Rica were able to call on injured goalkeeper Keylor Navas and fullback Cristian Gamboa. They’re not.
There’s a lot going for Canada tonight. Herdman’s squad must take advantage.
More Jon Arnold
Not sure anyone needs more JA in their lives, but, drawing your attention to a few other things I’ve done this week:
A piece for ESPN about Mexican-American players’ memories of watching U.S.-Mexico games and how their fandom has evolved with friends on both teams.
In what is becoming a tradition, I joined the Scuffed Pod for a focused discussion on what to expect from each of the United States’ opponents this window.
In the premium edition of this newsletter: Why Edson Alvarez is the most important player for Mexico this month, plus a breakdown of each Octagonal squad.
Premium subscribers also get a match-by-match preview of tonight’s action that I’m going to go write right now! Subscribe for less than $1 per premium edition below:
