🏆 - Some thoughts ahead of the Concacaf Champions League
Is this the year? MLS teams ask for the 13th-straight year
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The Concacaf Champions League returns this week, with tripleheaders Tuesday and Wednesday that will truly test the theory of whether too much CCL is bad for your health. If you make it past the first six matches, there’s a Thursday doubleheader ahead of next week’s second legs.
It sounds like a lot, but the tournament actually is more spaced out than usual this year, something the confederation switched to after having to finish the CCL in a bubble environment last season amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. While the pandemic is still causing suffering throughout the region, falling cases in most participating countries means not only that these games should generally be able to be played in local markets and hopefully by the time August’s semifinals roll around can safely be played in front of large crowds again.
To preview the tournament, I’m going to divide the teams up into four groups and mention a little bit about why each one does or doesn’t have a chance to lift the trophy. I also spoke to one of the most interesting people involved in this round. We’ll have that for you Thursday, so tell your friends by sharing the newsletter!
The favorites
Any Mexican team - Every year we get to this point and people ask, ‘Is this the year a team from outside Liga MX wins the Concacaf Champions League?’ For 12 years in a row, the answer has been no. Until the answer changes, I’m going to keep expecting a Liga MX team to win the tournament.
It’s not just the strength of the domestic league at this point, though Mexico still clearly maintains the best league in Concacaf. There also is a mystique of sorts built up around teams from Mexico. Especially if fans are back in the stadiums as we hope they can be toward the latter half of the tournament, there’s a mental game that goes beyond the already difficult games against Mexican clubs.
This year’s crop doesn’t feature reigning champion Tigres, which at this point looks like a disappointment for MLS teams as Tuca Ferretti’s squad continues to struggle. In fact, typically there’s at least one or two Mexican teams in CCL who are floundering. Currently, Mexico’s participants are 1, 2, 3 and 8 in the table.
Leading the pack is red-hot Cruz Azul, which has a first-round matchup against Haitian side Arcahaie, beginning Tuesday in the Dominican Republic, that could get ugly. Perhaps it’s foolhardy to suggest a team with Cruz Azul’s history of disappointing the faithful is the favorite heading into the tournament, but Juan Reynoso has the side’s December collapse in both the Liguilla and in CCL feeling like a distant memory. La Maquina are relying on a lock-down defense to win 11 straight after dropping the first two contests of the season. Even if Reynoso rests players, the club has the depth to make a deep run.
So too does Club America, which sits right behind, though sporting director Santiago Baños railed against the CCL a few weeks ago and basically said the tournament wasn’t worth anything to Las Aguilas. That’s not the tune the club’s directors were singing when a loss to LAFC was the last act for Miguel Herrera in December. It’s an interesting draw against an Olimpia side that Pedro Troglio just guided to the CCL semifinals (which, again América did not reach). Still, Santiago Solari has a good team, even if it’s not a first-choice squad, with plenty of players who can get América into a round where they want to take things seriously.
Monterrey is a well-balanced team led by Javier “Vasco” Aguirre. They stumbled against Cruz Azul but otherwise have been similarly difficult to beat at the back. That lets Rogelio Funes Mori get into the box as Aviles Hurtado and Dorlan Pabon create opportunities. Aguirre always looks for balance, and he has it with his current group.
Once again, León draw the short end of the stick. After LAFC eliminated the Liga MX team in last year’s first round, they now go up against Toronto FC in the first round. León sit lowest in the table of any Liga MX team, but are unbeaten in four after last night’s win over Toluca and still put together some beautiful soccer. Luis Montes, Angel Mena, Joel Campbell are still there in attack with Victor Davila added, and at the back the unit is mostly unchanged other than the retirement of Juan Ignacio Gonzalez and midfielder Pedro Aquino’s offseason sale to América.
Hey, look, all the Mexican teams are going to be good again. Wonder if anyone can beat them…
The MLS teams
Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United have the best pathways since they could get reach the semifinals before seeing a Mexican team. That said, there are big questions about both before they get started.
The Union are replacing Brenden Aaronson in attack and Mark McKenzie in defense, though their first-round draw is easier than Atlanta’s. Saprissa is currently reeling, particularly on the road where they haven’t won in 10 straight. Overall, they’re now going seven matches without a win and counting, with manager Roy Myers unable to do much with a squad that has veteran players and up-and-comers but basically nobody in between. Look for Los Morados to reload as they always do, but it’s a tough moment for them.
Expectations are more clear for either of those teams than they are for Atlanta United, which has a strong roster but floundered last year both because of an injury to Josef Martinez and the hiring of Frank de Boer. New manager Gabriel Heinze is savvy enough to know that a rude welcome to CCL was something De Boer never totally recovered from, even with Atlanta getting out of the first round. A date with Alajuelense will give him plenty to think about.
The path may be simpler for Philly and Atlanta, but the Columbus Crew may have the most complete roster. The potential quarterfinal against Rayados could be a fantastic showcase for North American soccer, with the MLS Cup champions looking as complete as last season. Former Tigres attacker Lucas Zelarayán surely would love a crack at his former rivals, and there’s Concacaf savvy throughout the squad from Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room to new acquisition Kevin Molino (though the Trinidad and Tobago attacker needs to overcome a hamstring strain).
And don’t count out the Portland Timbers, who could end up with a marquee quarterfinal against América. Man, I would love to see those two teams play with full stadiums. We’ll likely have to settle for enjoying them with far fewer fans in the stadium, but they should be good contests, especially if Sebastian Blanco is back healthy. Not that the Timbers should look that far ahead, but Marathon has struggled in domestic play with nine points from 10 matches. A team with Carlo Costly up front, Emilio Izaguirre at the back and Luis Garrido in the middle may have been dominant five years ago, but with all on the wrong side of 30 (and Costly a year and a few months away from 40) it’s a tie the Timbers should win.
The dark horses
It’s entirely possible Alajuelense gets stomped by the Five Stripes and my (totally blind, pre-draw) prediction they make the CCL semifinals looks idiotic. They’re still my pick for surprise team in this tournament.
LDA mixes all the right ingredients. They have the veteran experience of Bryan Ruiz and Johan Venegas, acquired from Saprissa in the winter. They have the up-and-coming prospects including forward Jurguens Montenegro, midfielder Bernald Alfaro and center back Fernán Faerrón, fresh off making up the core of Costa Rica’s U-23 team. And there are some Concacaf internationals including Alexander Lopez and Marcel Hernandez hitting their best. Hernandez will not be able to travel out of the country because of ongoing an ongoing legal case with authorities investigating an alleged sexual relationship with a minor (A quick aside to say that I don’t know enough about this specific case to opine but if guilty hope he is not playing in any sort of tournament in the future). There are very talented players at all levels, and LDA is focusing on the CCL, resting several regulars even in a rivalry match over the weekend against Herediano.
The (lack of) speed at the back also is something that might make it difficult for Liga to advance, but I still like them as a surprise squad.
The only other team from outside MLS or Liga MX I can see making a run is Olimpia. The first-round draw against América is a rough one, so I expect Los Leones to bow out at the first stage. Midfielder Deiby Flores’ absence because of a red card in December doesn’t make things easier. Get out of that round, though, and a date with the Timbers or a domestic matchup against Marathon would make it possible to at least hope for another semifinal spot.
The ‘16 seeds’
Big congrats to Atletico Pantoja of the Dominican Republic, Arcahaie of Haiti and Real Estelí of Nicaragua for making it this far. I think it’s going to be a very difficult ask to get past round one for these teams.
Maybe one can pull a UMBC. We’ll also be focusing in further on one of them in Wednesday’s newsletter.
Until then, enjoy the games!
Dang, Toronto's hopes so low they don't even get mentioned?