🏆 What to watch for in October's World Cup qualification matches

Can the U.S. and Mexico solidify their positions? And which coach goes first?

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It feels like the final round of World Cup qualification in the Concacaf region just started, yet at the end of the month we’ll be just shy of the halfway post of the octagonal.

Part of that is simply the frenetic pace of three games per FIFA date, a pace that will mercifully (for newsletter-writers and players alike) slow in the November window.

The pandemic condensed the calendar, which means if you, like Jamaica in this FIFA date, have a lot of players missing, you better have some other good options waiting in reserve.

Is this the window depth shines through?

That leads us nicely into my first thing to watch for this window:

🥇 Can Mexico and/or the United States establish hegemony?

To reset, Mexico sits atop the standings with seven points, then there’s a logjam of three teams with five and next come your stragglers with Jamaica propping up the table.

While the formula ‘win at home, draw on the road’ may not be totally perfect, especially with the expanded final round of qualification adding two teams. Yet, as we saw in September, a full half of the teams failed to win even one match in the first three attempts.

There is an opportunity, then, for the top teams to build separation.

Mexico is the most obvious candidate to do so.

With a pair of home matches, this time with fans, and already holding a two-point advantage on the rest of the field, El Tri can do what it failed to do in the 2014 cycle and build a lead early. That means nervous moments, like, going through the playoff to make the World Cup, wouldn’t be necessary.

The final matches of the cycle could be utilized to test out younger players in high-pressure environments. After an undefeated start to qualification, Mexico has an opportunity to actually deliver on what its fans expect: Llegar al mundial caminando.

“The reality is that there isn’t pressure, but rather an effort to get nine points from a triple World Cup qualification window that brings us closer to the goal of getting the World Cup. We have that expectation (to get nine points),” Martino said before the match. “There are teams in Central America that have evolved collectively and individually and have hopes to go to the World Cup.

“I understand the status of Mexico in the region, and you have to defend that with good soccer and with results, regardless of the opponent and their aspirations.”

That’s especially true because unlike most other teams, we’re talking about additions to El Tri, rather than subtractions. Wolves forward Raul Jimenez, Napoli winger Hirving Lozano and Atletico Madrid midfielder Hector Herrera are in camp and likely to start Thursday after missing out on all three September matches. All can help with Mexico’s biggest deficiency in the first matches, trouble finishing off the chances the team created.

The other candidate to pull away a bit is the U.S. Unlike Canada, which has a trip to the Estadio Azteca and later a road spot in Kingston before heading home, the United States has two home matches this month. The Americans have a pair of games at home against ‘stragglers’ sandwiched around a road contest Panama. Jamaica is missing plenty of key players (see below) and Costa Rica is going through its own moments of turmoil.

While the U.S. is missing some of its biggest stars with Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna out with injuries, plus center back John Brooks pulling out, the two matches at home against teams that haven’t shown their best provide an opportunity for the U.S. to show its depth and get a fair haul of points.

Those nerves U.S. fans felt at halftime of the match with Honduras, imagining a window in which the Stars and Stripes opened qualification with two points from three matches? The team can leave those behind, but only with results earned on the field.

🇵🇦 Is Panama powerful or pyrite?

Knowing fool’s gold is named pyrite is one of those things everyone seems to have learned in school rather than, like, the best insurance plan to choose or how to do your taxes, but still. It’s always good to know things.

Panama?

What we don’t know yet is what to make of Panama long-term. With five points from the first three matches, Panama currently sits in fourth place in the table, a spot that would be good enough to land in the intercontinental playoff.

The results themselves are tough to read. On the one hand, a pair of home draws actually feels somewhat disappointing. But when you note that one of those results was against Mexico, it looks a bit better. There’s even more shine on the start when you look at how dominant Panama was against Jamaica in a 3-0 victory in Kingston.

Yet, as we’ll get to shortly, it’s possible Jamaica is simply not very good or at least not being set up to get the results needed to prove it’s good.

With matches at El Salvador, at home against the United States and at Canada, we’ll get a good litmus test for exactly what to expect from 2018 World Cup participants.

Neither road trip is at all easy, especially with Canada circling its only home match of the month as a must-win.

Thomas Christiansen also needs to cover a few absences, notably Adalberto Carrasquilla, upon whom he relied heavily to get a two-way presence in midfield and allow Edgar Yoel Barcenas to create opportunities. Chance creation is critical for Panama because, despite the four goals in the last window, I’m still not convinced they have anyone who can regularly score goals.

There’s a hint the manager may agree with me, as he called in Venezuela-based attacker Freddy Gondola for the first time supplementing Rolando Blackburn, Gaby Torres and Eduardo Guerrero, who also could be in line for more minutes.

Panama also is without its best center-back pairing again, with Andres Andrade injured, while Harold Cummings returns. The back line is a good base for the team, but the ideal situation would be to get their four best players to develop chemistry as qualification progresses.

Little is ideal, however, in qualification, so Panama must make the best of it. We’ll see this window if there’s power behind this new Panama team or if they’re simply Panama pyrite.

🔥 Which coach on the hot seat is the first to go?

There are two obvious candidates here: Honduras manager Fabian Coito and Jamaica boss Theodore “Tappa” Whitmore.

Both need to get results, and if they don’t produce in this window, their tenures will come to a close.

I’ve created a bit of a false binary with ‘Who goes first?’ because both easily be gone before the November matches.

Whitmore’s leash feels longer given his history with the Reggae Boyz both as a player and as a coach, but reports in the Jamaican press indicate he needs five points from these three matches.

“As I can say, I am the coach and we have a game (Wednesday), and we are looking forward to the one on Sunday against Canada and then Honduras,” Whitmore said this week when asked about his long-term future.

With the number of holes Whitmore is trying to fill because of injuries, a lack of desire to play in this window or some combination of the two, and looking at a schedule that twice has Jamaica hitting the road AND with no fans allowed for Jamaica’s one match in Kingston, the odds are stacked against him.

Yet, for all the things working against Whitmore, Coito is feeling some of the same pressures. Whether because of injury (in the case of Romell Quioto) or manager’s decision (Anthony Lozano, Rubilio Castillo) the attack is heavily dependent on a now-healthy Alberth Elis.

Jon Arnold, the WCQ enjoyer @ArnoldcommaJon

☕️🚨 Let’s get Concacaffeinated! ☕️ 🚨 Absences rule #USMNT-#ReggaeBoyz build-up but #ElTriEng is all about additions. Plus thoughts on the action in Central America where the pressure is on at least one manager.

Kevin Alvarez returns to the defense (another weird Coito omission last window) and the midfield remains strong, especially as Alex Lopez returns. But if Whitmore’s target is six, I think Coito’s might be the same, which could set up a situation in which both are coaching for their jobs next week in San Pedro Sula as Jamaica travels to Honduras.

If I were a Vegas bookie, I’d have Coito as the slight favorite over Whitmore to lose his job first with Luis Fernando Suarez a third that would have good value on the betting market.

Costa Rica is yet to get a victory in qualification and has tough trips to Honduras and the U.S. this window.

Combine that with players already showing frustration with the new boss, and Suarez may be getting uncomfortable as well.

🚑 Who steps up to fill injury absences?

With so many teams missing key contributors, managers will be giving opportunities to players who may not be used to getting those chances.

It may lead to nervous moments for members of the coaching staff or fan base, but it’s the dream of many of these players stepping into important roles with the national team.

Already, we see several players who had better-than-expected performances stepping into key roles for their teams this time around.

Ricardo Pepi as one of two primary No. 9s on the U.S. roster after his standout showing in Honduras, is a great example. Gregg Berhalter put his faith in the 18-year-old, he repaid the faith and now he gets…more faith.

A few ideas of where these players could emerge? It’s been sink or swim for Roberto Domínguez in El Salvador’s defense. With both La Selecta’s top center backs out for this window. it’s a chance for him to earn redemption.

Shamar Nicholson for Jamaica is coming off an injury of his own, though he scored in league play after returning from a broken jaw, but with so many of Jamaica’s star attackers once again missing, it’s a chance for him to build on the two (both slightly strange) goals he scored in September.

And, while he’s likely not jumping in for an injured player, I think Mexico center back Johan Vasquez will get at least one start for Martino’s squad and get the chance to show his skill not just against the U-23 squads he impressed against at the Olympics but against the senior squads from the region as well.

Want more? Go premium! I looked at each team’s roster, including notable inclusions and omissions on Monday and have a game-by-game preview going out shortly.

📝 Analyzing each team's October WCQ roster