👀 What to watch for in the final window of World Cup qualification
All over the region...nerves
Getting CONCACAFed is a newsletter sharing stories and analysis from the Concacaf region.
I write and report on stories other soccer outlets overlook from CCL, World Cup qualification and more:
Greetings from Mexico City! I’m writing from the fantastic Café Negro in Coyoacán, the neighborhood famous for housing Frida Kahlo’s…house.
It’s not geographically far from the Estadio Azteca, where Mexico meets the United States tonight in World Cup qualification, but if you’ve ever been to Mexico City you know it can take a while to move around.
I had a cold brew here yesterday and connected for U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter’s news conference plus heard from a couple of players, then got a lift from a friend to get to the stadium just before the U.S. team pulled up to training.
We’ll get to that game in a second, but let’s start in Central America as we look ahead at what to watch for in the first matchday of the final window of World Cup qualification:
How do Panama, Costa Rica cope with their slim margin for error?
The three North American teams currently sit in the top three spots, which would qualify them automatically for the World Cup. Panama is currently in fourth and would head to the intercontinental playoff against the OFC champion. They’re four points behind the U.S. and Mexico but have a hold on the playoff place by only one point with Costa Rica just behind.
The objective for Costa Rica is to outperform Panama over three games. Without knowing what Panama will do and having what looks like a slightly more difficult road ahead, the margin of error is extremely slim.
“You have to take advantage of the moments. We’re depending on ourselves, and I’m going to give my best to be in this anticipated World Cup,” forward Joel Campbell said yesterday in a news conference ahead of the Ticos’ tilt with Panama.
A win against Canada would change everything, but no one has beaten Canada yet in this cycle.
Yet, you also wonder about Panama’s mental strength. Making the World Cup in 2018 was a surprise, but with that success comes demand. Fans expect you to get back to the World Cup even if the core of that group has moved on to other things - and the manager who got you there and knows you well is coaching the team you’re facing Thursday night.
“If you’re not convinced in the things you’re doing, you’re going to go out on the field tense, without that freedom of movement,” Panama’s current manager Thomas Christiansen said in his news conference. “There’s tension from the expectations that have been created and from us as well that we believe we have a chance to go directly to the World Cup and we’re clinging on to that.”
What is clear is that neither team wants to let the possibility of failure enter the mind. “What I’m going to say is something intimate within the team, but … we have a word: Believe. We’ve never stopped believing,” Campbell said.
Tactically, Costa Rica has been overly dependent on goalkeeper Keylor Navas at the back and on Campbell up front. Someone must emerge to aid him in the attack. Alonso Martinez is a candidate, and there are good domestic-based players who could step up in a very pressure-packed situation.
Panama has a game in which it must get three points, hosting a Honduras side that, with zero wins this window, has left most of its top talent with their clubs. Look for the home team to roll out its 4-4-2 with a pair of forwards, something that has yielded mixed results in the cycle.
Fans are worried, but the U.S. national team says they aren’t
The words the American players are saying ahead of Thursday’s match might seem surprising going into a game at a venue where U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter bluntly and correctly noted, “our record down here is horrendous.”
Confidence may be too strong a word, but there is a genuine anxiousness, a desire to hit the pitch and play this game coming from U.S. players.
“I think I’m just more excited we’re that much closer to reaching our goal,” said midfielder Kellyn Acosta, who likely will start in midfield with Weston McKennie injured. “Tomorrow’s another opportunity to put us in the right direction. Being a rivalry game it comes with a lot of emotions in terms of, it’s going to be aggressive, it’s going to be gritty, but we’re excited to be here in Mexico.”
It’s easy to pinpoint where that near-confidence has come from, though. This is a group made up of players whose history against Mexico is overwhelmingly positive. These players beat El Tri three times last year, all in official competitions.
“We know it’s not going to be easy. We’ve got the better of them in the last couple games but that means nothing coming into tomorrow,” Christian Pulisic said Wednesday. “We’re going to need to battle, need another top performance to do the things we’ve been doing in the past couple games and we’re going to need an amazing performance to win the game tomorrow.”
We’ve heard far less out of the Mexico camp with manager Tata Martino talking for less than 15 minutes the only media sessions set up this week.
The questions about the team are the same. Who replaces Andres Guardado? Will the center backs have enough speed to keep forwards from slipping behind? Is anyone going to finish in front of goal? Exactly what the hell is going on with the fullbacks?
Every team has their weaknesses, but Martino looks and sounds tired of the constant questions, of the pressure in the environment and (maybe?) his own inability to fine-tune what, on paper, should be a better group than we see on the field.
Mexico still is the favorite. History tells us that, and their results have been comparable to the U.S.’ the whole cycle. But the environment around Mexico - at least from what we’ve been able to glean with limited access - doesn’t feel conducive to a game in which El Tri leave happy, sung off the field by the cheering fans.
There have to be nerves. There has to be some worry. But at least externally, the U.S. is ready.
“This is something I’ve been looking forward to for a while, the few times I’ve played against Mexico have been at home,” fullback Antonee “Jedi” Robinson told us in Mexico City. “Even their fans traveling to (the U.S.), they’ve been able to create a good environment. It’s going to be interesting and obviously help the home team but also spur our whole team on and be something we can thrive off and enjoy as well.
“I’m really looking forward to it.”
Me too.
Something might be decided tonight, but not everything will be
When analyzing, it’s hard not to skip to the end. OK, who makes the World Cup and how? Who goes to the playoff? How should a manager keep his squad fresh in such a critical stretch of games?
There are times in sports where I simply don’t believe the ‘one game at a time’ mentality so many managers and players espouse. Of course you’re looking ahead to your rivalry match next weekend or the start of the playoffs.
This time, though, I believe them. There are so many things out of each team’s control. Don’t believe me? Here’s the Charlie Kelly-esque graphic Alex Abnos devised:
Canada definitely could qualify tonight. Maybe we’ll have more clarity on the No. 2 spot as well. But thinking too deeply is the path to madness. We’ll know the Sunday scenarios after tonight’s matches. I know, I know. I can’t wait either.