🌎 - World Cup qualification starts with few surprises
Are things going to get wild in the latter half of the FIFA window? Don't hold your breath!
If you’re not subscribed to this newsletter, you can do so by clicking here and putting your email address in the box.
We love Concacaf because it’s wacky and wild. Anything can happen. On the two days of World Cup qualification, though, what happened was a lot of teams favored to win took care of business.
Some did it less impressively than others: Haiti, while winning 2-0 and dominating Belize needed a pair of defensive breakdowns on corner kicks to get three points. Panama labored against a Barbados team not expected to give them trouble with Jair Catuy scoring the only goal. Guatemala took on a Cuba squad whose best player (new recruit Onel Hernández) arrived during the match and came into the game for the second 45 minutes after a total of zero training sessions with his teammates. Los Chapines still only won, 1-0.
Other teams were more convincing. I put the spotlight on Trinidad and Tobago as a potential candidate to get upset. Instead they had Guyana done and dusted before halftime, with Levi Garcia’s individual effort opening the scoring in the 7th minute, Sheldon Bateau adding another from a set piece and Ryan Telfer adding a third before the break.
Note: I apologize to everyone who watched this game since I made it my match to watch and fear with four COVID-19 cases on an Aruba team already the underdog against Suriname, today’s might not deliver either
Canada also dominated. No matter how good the philosophy, no Bermuda player can rein in Alphonso Davies in practice. He set up Cyle Larin for a hat trick and Canada rolled to a 5-1 victory to open qualification.
In the first match of the Guus Hiddink era, Curacao was winning in the first minute and enjoyed a relaxed 5-0 win over St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
We were hoping for wild and fun and instead got this:
Right now, that’s the difference. If there’s a truly superlative player like Davies or, at this level, even like Garcia on your team, it’s likely you will be able to find wins at this round of qualification. The standout players for a lot of teams at this level play in a league like the USL Championship. Most are in much weaker domestic leagues. And in the case of those teams, there are other players who might not be, say, UEFA Champions League winners but are regulars in second-tier European leagues or MLS.
The pandemic made the qualification format worse. After two more matches are played in June, 23 teams will be eliminated from World Cup contention. That’s sort of what the format is designed to do, though, to get some of the teams who simply aren’t going to be able to compete eliminated. The Nations League is there for them to develop. Let the big boys fight it out to see who gets to Qatar.
Even so, we’re seeing fewer blowouts of the 10-0 variety. Wednesday brought us an upset with St. Kitts and Nevis topping Puerto Rico, the only draw so far, Suriname dominating but not as much as expected and a pair of 1-0 results.
There may still be some surprises around the corner. Seven teams still haven’t kicked off their qualification campaigns, so perhaps I’m counting out both the U.S. Virgin Islands AND the British Virgin Islands too soon (Disclaimer: I know some of you trawl this newsletter for betting tips, and I do not recommend putting any cash on either of those teams).
More likely, though, there will be a surprise ‘at the top.’ Curacao and Guatemala look likely to decide Group C in their June 8 finale. An upstart and improving Suriname is the biggest threat to Canada. They also square off June 8. No one in Group D looked extremely inspiring, but a last-day decider between Panama and the Dominican Republic also looks to be on track there.
So, June will be fun. What about the games today, Sunday and Tuesday? I’ll still recommend my games to watch published earlier in the week, and we’ll hope there’s some fun soccer to be had, but maybe just having qualification back is enough to tide us over.
🥇 - It all comes down to Sunday
Speaking of tournaments that have been a bit chalk, the Olympic Qualification tournament unfolded mostly as expected. There were some dramatic moments in Group B, but the stalemate between Honduras and Canada means Sunday’s deciding semifinals look a lot like we thought they would.
Mexico came in heralded as the class of the tournament and has been. Uriel Antuna continues to be Superman in the Mexico shirt, even though he’s Clark Kent with Chivas, JJ Macias is fit and ready for action and that midfield with Sebastian Cordova and Charly Rodriguez putting in work on both ends of the field is tops in the region. Canada will need more than a little good fortune to become bracket busters and book a place in Tokyo.
The United States, though as many of my countrymen will remind you not able to count on the best talent eligible for the competition, also has looked good, able to compete with Mexico even with lineup alterations made with the semifinals in mind. They’ll have to get past Honduras. I wrote in the preview that they’re riding their reputation, and I still think Los Catrachos have fallen short of previous greatness. Can they beat the U.S.? Sure. Are they favorites at this point? Probably not. It’ll all get decided tomorrow night! Here’s the slate:
