5️⃣ Chapines' chance, Vincy Heat home cookin' + more to watch in October's FIFA window
What to watch for as Concacaf Nations League play resumes!
Tickets to the Nations League quarterfinals, teams clinching promotion from the lower leagues, and Gold Cup spots galore.
Not everything will be decided in October, but teams have a chance to claim some of the ‘prizes’ that come with Concacaf Nations League success.
Let’s take a look at five things worth keeping an eye on during October’s Concacaf Nations League matches.
Also, I’m headed to Austin and Guadalajara to cover three of the four teams not in Nations League action, so if you’re looking for coverage of the U.S., Mexico or Panama - there will be newsletters for you this week and next!
First, let’s take a look at the full slate. Then, let’s look at five things that have my attention - and might interest you, too!
🅰️ So who’s coming out of League A to play the USMNT, El Tri, Canada or Panama?
The top two teams from each League A group move into the Nations League quarterfinals against the teams already qualified for that round: The U.S., Mexico, Canada and Panama. The matchups are determined by the Concacaf Rankings, which are confusing and involve math. For those reasons, we’ll skip that for now.
The math for some teams is straightforward, though. Win both matches in the October window, and you’re into the quarterfinals of the competition - setting up a home game with one of the giants of the region.
With Concacaf utilizing the Swiss style format, there are a few wonky scenarios. If Guadeloupe beats rival Martinique twice, it would be on nine points. If Costa Rica and Guatemala both win their first game and the teams draw in their Oct. 15 match in San Jose, that would see them jumped, with goal difference deciding the second quarterfinalist place.
Things are a *bit* less chaotic in Group B, though leader Jamaica has a pair of games that are going to make them earn their return to the quarterfinals. The Reggae Boyz travel to Nicaragua, which currently sits in second, and then hosts Honduras after seeing off Los Catrachos in Central America last month.
That could leave the door open for Cuba, which would go up to eight points if it can twice beat Trinidad and Tobago, a team that struggled in September and currently is under the care of an interim manager.
🇬🇹 Tena’s Chapines have their chance
When Guatemala hired Mexican manager Luis Fernando Tena in 2021, it was transparent about the goal: Get to the 2026 World Cup.
Things are off to a good start there after Los Chapines won their first two World Cup qualification matches. It’s also good to get some positive indications along the way.
Guatemala had one of those moments in 2023 when it won a Gold Cup group that included Canada before falling to Jamaica in the quarterfinals.
While a scoreless draw with Costa Rica earlier in this Concacaf Nations League may not have been thrilling, it was another indication things could be headed in the right direction.
Getting a place in the Nations League quarterfinals, as one of the final eight teams in the competition, would be another step forward for Los Chapines.
The team continues to get commitments from eligible players based outside Central America, with D.C. United defender Aaron Herrera now into double-digit caps. Derby County forward Nathaniel Mendez-Laing making the long trip even to Guyana (from England via Panama) and New England Revolution academy forward Olger Escobar continuing to get senior call-ups after a strong Concacaf U-20 performance.
Guatemala heads to Guyana hoping to get all three points on the road and set up a showdown with Costa Rica on the final day of the window.
“We’ve seen their recent games. They’re very solid defensively with quality center backs. We knew we’d have to attack on the wing,” Tena said of the Ticos after the September draw. “We’ve got to push more, be more attacking - including the fullbacks - looking at the future when opponents play games the same way against us, whether it’s here or even when we go on the road.”
That’s what Guatemala will need to do away from home, hoping to continue to establish another milestone along the road to 2026.
🇻🇨 Vincy Heat looks to take advantage of home opportunity
St. Vincent and the Grenadines shouldn’t be hosting any matches under Concacaf’s League B hub system that was supposed to have games hosted at the third-highest rated team’s home in September, the second-highest rated this month and the top-rated team in November.
While the ferry is once again running, Montserrat still is unable to host. That meant SVG got the opportunity to step in, and not only does it host all matches in League B Group A this month, it gets to play both its contests against group-favorite El Salvador at home.
Already looking to be on the rise after hiring former national team hero Ezra Hendrickson as the head coach, with Oronde Ash, another alumnus of the 1996 team that qualified for the Gold Cup, as his assistant.
A draw with Bonaire and a win over Montserrat puts SVG in second after two matches. With efforts being made to get fans to turn up to the Arnos Vale Sporting Complex to create a difficult environment for La Selecta, SVG hopes to secure one or two results and get it closer than ever to a Gold Cup return.
🇨🇼 Dick Advocaat’s Curacao must bounce back with the usual suspects
Curacao should, in theory, be too good for League B. Rather than start life in the second tier with a bang, however, it fell 2-1 to Saint Lucia.
Despite winning the second match of the window 4-0 against Saint Martin, it puts Curacao in a place it didn’t want to be - not controlling its own destiny as it chases a return to League A.
Now, it has two tricky contests against Grenada at the neutral site of Saint Lucia.
Curacao has specialized in finding eligible players, convincing former Netherlands youth internationals to put on the blue-and-yellow jersey of the island country. Finding new recruits was part of the plan for current manager Dick Advocaat - just as it was for past coaches Guus Hiddink and Remko Bicentini.
Yet, as our friends at Curacao Football News noted, Curacao’s roster has just one player called for the first time - right back Tyrique Mercera of second-tier Dutch club SC Cambuur.
Advocaat has a couple players back after they missed out in September, and he certainly could engineer a pair of wins against a Grenada squad that has just one win in its last 14 contests.
But it isn’t clear where the calvary is coming from if Curacao is going to make a huge push not just to get promoted but to earn the 2026 World Cup spot that long has been its stated goal.
🇦🇮 Anguilla goes for un-Belize-able results
I wrote about Anguilla last month, speaking to a trio of players about what it meant to secure their first victory in an official match in more than a decade.
It struck me speaking to those players that their goals - beating Belize and earning promotion - are not unachievable in this edition of the tournament. Anguilla is improving. Very few observers would argue against that.
Are they improving quickly enough to knock off a team that was in the Gold Cup not that long ago? We’ll see.
After that game, it’s a rematch with Turks and Caicos Islands in a game that is becoming something of a rivalry.
Anguilla knocked TCI out of World Cup qualification in a shootout and now earned its first-ever Nations League victory against the same team. Will the fourth time be the charm for TCI to finally get a victory in 2024 against what used to be the region’s worst team?
You know I’ll be keeping an eye out and letting you know how it goes right here. Subscribe if you haven’t, and tell a friend.