🏆 Coast-a Rica? Favorites, spoilers & more reaction to the Concacaf WCQ draw
Together, we find the chaos potential.
The United States, Mexico and Canada are qualified for the 2026 World Cup as hosts, something that has sapped North American interest in the process for getting to that tournament.
That’s not to say that it doesn’t matter a whole lot in other corners of Concacaf.
You could tell from FIFA’s list of countries where the draw would be shown on linear television where the interest lies: Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala and other countries in Central America and the Caribbean view this as the perfect chance to make World Cup dreams come true. There are no true Goliaths to slay. Take care of business against your regional rivals, and a place in the expanded tournament awaits.
To qualify, teams will need to finish in the top two of the groups drawn today. That may sound easy, but there will be just four matches in this round - two taking place in June 2024 and the next pair in June 2025.
The two teams that advance will go into three groups of four with the winner of those groups going directly to the World Cup. The best two of the second-place teams in those groups will go into a playoff.
Are you following? If not, know the truth of soccer holds: Win your groups and you’re going through. Don’t, and it gets a little more complicated.
Here are the results of the draw:
Let’s get into it:
☠️ Is there a GROUP OF DEATH?
Any draw reaction piece must have a Group of Death section. And, look, I’ve been known to enjoy picking a Group of Death in my day. But, to me, this round of WCQ should be relatively straightforward for any team that has a real chance of earning one of the three automatic spots on offer.
Yes, there are good rivals from Pot 2 and a few Pot 3 teams that could surprise, but the level of competition is such that teams with World Cup history like Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras or even Haiti should be able to get some results and move on.
The calendar, which Concacaf is currently working to finalize, will determine a fair amount. A home date against a Caribbean minnow may be straight-forward, a trip connecting through Miami and then training on artificial turf the day before, then gameday in a monsoon, less so.
But overall, the favorites are in groups that shouldn’t push them. That’s OK. At this stage of the competition, when basically everyone is still in, there are going to be a few mismatches.
🚨 Fine, which group is the most open?
There are two groups I’m circling in which I think the Pot 1 team may struggle to finish in the top two. The first is Group F.
El Salvador has not played well consistently since the 2021 Gold Cup and played more than a dozen matches without a victory in 2023.
It’s not that things aren’t shifting with some rivals as well. The progress Suriname made under Dean Gorre seems almost undone, with Aaron Winter failing to replicate the results and the flow of new recruits from the Netherlands slowing to a drip. At any time, though, the right combination of sharp federation leadership and a capable on-field tactician could align for the facet to be twisted open. Will it happen before the summer? If it does, La Selecta could be in trouble.
In the same group, Puerto Rico fell just short of securing promotion to League A of the Concacaf Nations League and will be all too happy to play spoiler. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines also missed League A promotion by only a narrow margin.
The other group is Group C, the only all-Caribbean group. Typically, I’d say Haiti could walk to the top spot. They have the talent to and showed it knows how to flex its muscle with an undefeated run in the 2022-23 CNL. I’m just confused about what Haiti is doing right now - who’s the coach? What are the plans for the future? Where are they going to play their matches?
That sort of uncertainty, combined with a Curacao team that, with experienced manager Dick Advocaat leading the charge, certainly will have a plan and the details in place, in the same group could spell trouble.
If the alarm bells aren’t flashing just from Curacao, how about Saint Lucia, a team that pulled out of 2022 World Cup qualification but since has been rebuilding quietly under manager Stern John. It put together a sturdy second-place finish in CNL, falling twice to Guadeloupe.
🤜🤛 Are there rivalries, rematches or good narratives?!
Some of the big potential ones missed. Jamaica could’ve been in a Caribbean clash with Trinidad and Tobago, but instead the Soca Warriors are in Group B with Costa Rica, while Jamaica has Guatemala and the Dominican Republic to worry about.
Those latter two teams have some not-too-distant Nations League history with a series back in 2022 but others saw each other even more recently.
Honduras and Cuba will rematch in Group A after Los Catrachos were held to a scoreless draw in a CNL match in October 2023, then smashed Los Leones del Caribe 4-0 in a must-win game in Tegucigalpa days later.
Puerto Rico and Suriname pick up where they left off last summer when Puerto Rico topped Suriname on a penalty shootout to move on in Gold Cup qualification.
So, even though games like Jamaica v. T&T or El Salvador v. Montserrat, the official fake rivalry of Getting CONCACAFed, would have to wait for a future round, there should be a little extra spice in a few games this summer.
🗓️ Hey, when is the first round?
We’ve known for months now the first round will be in March and will be home-and-home series between the four worst teams in the Concacaf rankings. Turks and Caicos Islands meets Anguilla and the U.S. Virgin Islands squares off with the British Virgin Islands.
What we don’t know is the actual dates for those games. They’ll be in the March FIFA window between March 18-March 26, but for now coaching staffs of teams in Groups E and F won’t be sure exactly when they can tune in and scout their future group opponents.
I figured they’d get announced today - and maybe they still will later - but so far nothing official!
Have I put in multiple requests with PR professionals working with FIFA? Yes. Am I the only person worried about this right now? OK, also yes.
Still, it’d be nice to have some clarity on this two months out from the start of World Cup qualification in the region.
Are you also seeking out the date of the next Anguilla game? Counting down the days to a June match between two Caribbean rivals? You’re in the right place. Subscribe or go premium for much more coverage of the Concacaf region: