Concacaf World Cup megapreview (Experts' version) Part 1: USA, Mexico
Concacaf World Cup megapreview (Experts' version) Part 1: USA, Mexico
Voices from around the region chime in on their teams' chances
You know a lot of what I think about the teams at the World Cup, but what about the people who are living each day in the teams’ run-up to Qatar?
Ahead of the tournament kicking off Sunday and Concacaf teams beginning play Monday with the U.S. meeting Wales, I asked two or three experts on each team (aka some of my friends from around the region) a series of four or five questions.
Their answers are below, somewhat edited for clarity, continuity etc..
We’re going in order of when the teams kick off, starting with the U.S. and Mexico. Early next week, we’ll feature Costa Rica and Canada ahead of their Wednesday kickoffs.
United States
The experts:
Sam Stejskal covers the United States men’s national team and other soccer topics for The Athletic. I’ve known Sam since I was blogging at a now defunct site and he was (gasp) a PR guy.
Adam Belz maintains the Scuffed empire of podcasts, vibrant Discord chatter and other events. We’ve never met, but a while back he started inviting me on the podcast and I greatly enjoyed his research, passion and how nice he is to me on his show.
Charlie Boehm is a Texan who writes from his base in D.C. for places like MLS’ official site and ProSoccerWire, where some of his coverage from Qatar will appear!
JA: That September window was pretty rough for the U.S. and there have been no pre-tournament friendly matches. How do they make sure that was just a speed bump?
AB: I think the return of a healthy Tim Weah and a healthy Yunus Musah will immediately improve the team. I also hope and suspect that Berhalter will take a more pragmatic approach to the World Cup matches. He has generally done that in must-win and knockout games.
The pragmatic approach I'm referring to isn't so much bunkering and countering as it is playing in a way that gives our midfield the opportunity to get into 1v1 battles with the opponent's midfield.
That's our strength, and we have not shown an ability to pass our way into dangerous situations from back to front. I also hope that the occasion of the World Cup will bring out the best in our young team. I do have to admit that the September friendlies give us a window into what this team can look like at its worst.
SS: For one thing, the team was missing a large number of starters in September: Antonee Robinson was out, Yunus Musah was out, Christian Pulisic didn’t play in the first game against Japan. Gio Reyna came off injured really early against Saudi Arabia. Tim Weah was not there. There were a number of key players that weren’t involved.
For the second part, they were really lacking in intensity in the Japan game in particular, and I’m not worried about that being an issue here at the World Cup. Those games didn’t happen in a vacuum, but they may as well have. It was weird day game in Cologne, Germany, not many fans in the building and the U.S. wasn’t ready or up for it. They were also terrible in the match, but I’m not super concerned there will be a carry-over - particularly because we’ve seen this team really perform at its best in some of its biggest matches over the last year, year and a half.
CB: Perhaps the many unprecedented aspects of this World Cup mean there would inevitably be uncertainty at this point. But so much hinges on the USMNT's first match. If they get off to a good start both performance and result-wise, the confidence and momentum of this young group will swell. But Wales' discipline and organization makes for a tricky tactical matchup that I don't think favors the US. If not quite a must-win, then definitely a must-not-lose.
If the U.S. gets McKennie back fully fit and nobody else goes down, what’s the strongest point of the team when healthy? What about its weakness?
CB: McKennie epitomizes this team in the sense that he tends to be a high-ceiling/low-floor player - capable of world-class box-to-box work and box arrivals but prone to inconsistency and, well, let's call it brain flatulence. The MMA central midfield triangle is the heart of this team, but we still don't have many data points on their ability to match elite opposition.
As far as weaknesses the No 9 spot stubbornly continues to be a concern, though I reckon Josh Sargent is well positioned to surprise us in a positive way at this tournament, and I have questions about the balance between the skill sets of the center back group and the demands Berhalter will be placing on them.
SS: I think the strongest point of the team when they’re healthy is their ability in transition. That starts with the midfielders and continues with the wingers, so when McKennie and Adams and Musah - or potentially Aaronson at this World Cup, they can press the hell out of other teams, be super disruptive in midfield and get forward and find the wingers, hopefully for the U.S. on the break. If Pulisic can get the ball in space running at defenders, if Tim Weah can get the ball in space running at defenders, those two can create some damage on their own. I’d say that’s where the U.S. is best.
In terms of position I think winger is the strongest.
AB: The strongest parts of the team are the wingers and the midfield, which is why it's critical we get the ball to those players as much as possible. The weakest point is the center backs and their passing, which is why it's so hard for us to get the ball to the wingers and midfielders.
SS: Weaknesses? Striker and center back. Same thing that everybody else says, right? I have real questions about Jesus Ferreira considering how he finished the season with FC Dallas, not really scoring goals, didn’t score a goal in his last seven games for Dallas and the U.S. heading into the World Cup and hasn’t played in almost a month now. So, if he’s going to be the starting No. 9, is that going to hold up at the highest level? I’m skeptical.
Center back? Really curious to see how the dynamic changes with Tim Ream now in the group. Will he get a start? Will he get multiple starts? Will Aaron Long continue to play when he struggled down the stretch for the U.S. and the Red Bulls and hasn’t played in a month just like Ferreira? That remains to be seen. I think we’re going to see a good deal of Ream, though. I really believe that.
Did Berhalter make a mistake calling in anybody in particular? What about leaving off Pepi, Arriola or someone else?
AB: I think there's an argument for Pepi to be on the roster. Same with Arriola. It's debatable though, and I don't think Berhalter was totally wrong to leave them off.
CB: Berhalter surprised me with some of his squad choices in terms of cutting out guys to whom he'd previously been very loyal (perhaps too loyal).
Like Tata Martino, he may end up regretting not bringing a fourth striker. But the relative lack of central midfield depth is the biggest issue for me, and Gregg effectively acknowledged that concern by categorizing Aaronson as a midfielder.
There are significant differences in skill sets and relationships if the US have to use anyone other then MMA or Luca de la Torre in any of those three central spots.
It feels like basically any outcome is on the table from a group stage exit to surprise quarterfinal and who knows from there? What’s the most likely and what will be the key to taking it a step further than that?
AB: The most likely outcomes are either the US barely gets out of the group, or the US barely misses getting out of the group. You're right that the entire range of possibility is within reach. Depends very much on how we play against Wales on Monday.
CB: You are right about the unpredictability of this USMNT. Their particular matrix of talent and youth means you rarely know exactly what you will get from them on a game to game basis. Almost no set of results outcomes would surprise me but I suspect it will be difficult for them to get out of the group.
For me the key to their success is being organized and hard to play against - dial back the complex possession concepts and let them play instinctively and aggressively, even if it means having less of the ball. There's a fundamental awkwardness for Berhalter in that the signature results of his time in charge have generally been secured with a style different from his preferred principles.
SS: I agree with you that basically any outcome is on the table. I think the most likely is finishing second in the group and losing in the Round of 16 to whoever wins Group A.
The key to taking it a step further is taking a point off of England. I think that would be the absolute key. If the U.S. can beat Wales, get a result against England and head into that last game agianst Iran, who are dealing with a lot of off-field difficulties at the moment and get a win in that one, maybe they can position themselves to win the group and set themselves up for an easier opponent in the Round of 16, which would make that path much easier or they could hope Qatar surprises the world and wins that group.
I think the key for the team honestly is to change the shape a little bit, drop Musah deeper in midfielder, play McKennie or Aaronson or maybe even Gio Reyna a bit more strictly attacking and invert that triangle a bit. Not a pure double pivot, necessarily, but have Musah drop deeper next to Adams to give him a little more help when building out of the back.
Where do you feel like fans are at? It’s gotta be good to be back but also there’s a rising level of expectation around the team with all the players at big European clubs. Would there be…backlash…if the team goes out in the group?
SS: There would absoultely be backlash if this team goes out in the group.
I think that would be fair. I don’t think it would necessarily be a surprise, I don’t think this team is necessaraily an overwhelming favorite to get out of the group, but I think the U.S. should enter any World Cup it’s in with a level of expectation to advance and finish in the top two out of four teams.
I think there would be a backlash, and it’d be deserved. I know the players have spoken about it this week and previously that they’d be disappointed if they don’t make it out of the group.
CB: The mood of large chunks of the USMNT fanbase tends to swing dramatically from highs to lows and game to game. I expect that will be the case in this tournament too.
There's significant Berhalter fatigue as well, and I get the sense that doubt in his evaluations and decision making have tamped down the expectations of many supporters. But just like the squad itself needs a jolt of belief to approach their potential, the fans will jump on board quickly if they see encouraging signs in that first game.
SS: In terms of the overall fan base, I’d say the hardcore fans after September were in a really bad, pessimistic place. I’ve started to see some optimisim rise as we’ve gotten closer to the tournament and people get some distance from those two games and naturally start to feel more excitement for the actual touranment itself, but there’s got to be important context around these players and the excitement they’re at big European clubs. Just because they are contracted to big clubs does not necessarily mean they’re amazing players, particularly when they’re all super young like most of these players all.
Collectively and individually, I think these guys are still figuring it out. I think they still have a pretty long way to go, and I think the U.S. like most non-favorites at this tournament have some pretty signifficant weaknesses and holes. If they can paper over those, they can maybe make a decent run. If they can’t, they’ll be out pretty quickly. Any outcome, like you said in the previous question is very much on the table. I think fans maybe need to temper things a little bit - some of them anyway - we’ll see where it goes. I’m excited for the tournament.
AB: I think going out in the group would be pretty bad for the popularity of men's soccer in the U.S. It's already tough sledding. And people just aren't going to understand if we can't even get to the knockout rounds, even if there would objectively be no shame in it. So yeah I guess you could say there'd be backlash. I'll say it would reinforce the nation's indifference.
Mexico
The experts:
Cesar Hernandez is a reporter covering Mexico for ESPNFC and is reporting on El Tri from Qatar. We’ve known each other since he was a social worker blogging on “The Big Verde” and mutually over-imbibed at each other’s weddings. Don’t tell Qatar!
Enrique Martinez Villar is the top El Tri writer for Mexican outlet MedioTiempo, where he also covers América. I’ve shown him around my neighborhood when he basically lived in Dallas during the 2021 Gold Cup and he returned the favor in Mexico City.
JA: Mexico seems to be down bad. Why will they surprise us and make the quinto partido?
EM: I think Mexico gets better when it plays against power, in this case in the World Cup it’ll face two, Poland even though it’s not considered a world power, it’s a team that is a lot better than the Mexican one - at least in name with the stars it has - and then Argentina. When Mexico gets to a World Cup it gets ‘bigger’ and it can surprise in that way.
CH: My guess: Probably not, but I do believe that they’ll have enough to at least get into the knockout round.
All signs point to Argentina leading the group, leaving a probable battle for second between Mexico and Poland. The more you read about Poland’s own run of form and momentum heading into Qatar, the more it seems like Mexico’s situation may not be as worrisome as that of their upcoming European opponents.
Second in the group makes sense, but after that? It’ll be the usual script for the Concacaf side with an eighth consecutive finish in the Round of 16.
JA: We talk a lot about this team’s weaknesses - the defensive errors, the lack of chance creation. What do you think are their strengths?
EM: The strengths might be having an experienced player in goal like Guillermo Ochoa, to start, plus I think Hirving Lozano is going through a really, really good run of form. He can be one of the strengths of the Mexican national team.
CH: I can already see the eyerolls from Mexico fans as I begin to type this out, but I think there’s a strength in a defined style of play, a calculable formation setup, and also a familiarity within Martino’s usual call-ups.
EM: Another strength, I think is the group. There’s unity in the national team, unlike what we saw four years ago. I think that’s one of the top strengths that can take Mexico far in the World Cup.
CH: Granted, a justified argument from those rolling their eyes at me is that the execution of this style has been poor in 2022, which goes hand-in-hand with a drop in chemistry.
There’s a framework there though and the expectations are still fairly clear with how Martino wants to hold possession and build things up through his 4-3-3, or variation of.
JA: If Raul Jimenez isn’t fit to start against Poland, what do you think Tata Martino will do?
CH: I’ve always said that Martino sees Rogelio Funes Mori as a diet Raul Jimenez.
Henry Martin can make a case for himself as a similar player and easily has the numbers from the 2022 Apertura to back himself up as a strong replacement, but it seems like the No. 2 spot still belongs to Funes Mori.
Whether this works is another question altogether. The Monterrey striker has been far from his best and also seems to have lingering issues with fitness after recovering from an injury this season.
EM: If Raul Jimenez isn’t fit, I think it has to be Rogelio Funes Mori. For me, the naturalized Argentine is the best Mexican player as a forward, even with the four healthy Santi, Henry, Raul and Funes Mori. He’s the most complete, for me, so I think for me he’d have to be the starter.
If we go further, Funes Mori’s characteristics are somewhat similar to Raul’s and you’ve got to remember this national team is built to take advantage 100% of Raul Jimenez.
JA: I think he starts Hirving Lozano as the 9 and puts Vega and Uriel Antuna out there. Call me crazy.
JA: Did Martino make a mistake bringing anyone in particular? What about by leaving off Lainez, Gimenez or someone else?
EM: I think he messed up leaving Lainez and taking Roberto Alvarado? Why? Because Alvarado doesn’t give you that hope of changing a game, and Lainez does.
Alvarado can play a lot of positions, but he’s not a player who gives you hope or can pull out a moment of brilliance like Lainez can without issue.
I think that’s the big mistake.
Raul, I don’t think that’s a mistake because if he comes in healthy, it’s really good. I might’ve put Santi Gimenez over Henry, but ultimately Santi has similar characteristics to Funes Mori and Raul, and you might need a forward like Henry who shows up at the right time. I’d just have done that change of Alvarado for Lainez.
CH: I’m still confused by the decision to not bring goalkeeper Carlos Acevedo. I know it would be highly, highly unlikely that he would have earned minutes, but I think there’s a responsibility there to help usher in the new generation -- even if Martino isn’t part of that process in the near future.
Also, IMO, there’s too many overlapping midfield roles within the squad and I probably would have dropped someone like Luis Romo or Carlos “Charly” Rodriguez for a Lainez or Gimenez. It would be a sacrifice, especially when you consider the specialties that Romo can bring as a DM and Charly as a 10 (if needed), but their form has been lacking and you have enough versatility in the rest of the call-ups to fill those spaces.
He’s not on the same level obviously, but Lainez is the closest Mexico has to a Tecatito-like player and we can’t ignore the form that Gimenez is in.
JA: What will the reaction be if Mexico does crash out at the group stage?
CH: Editors for Mexican sports papers are probably prepping their bold “Tritanic” and “Fracaso” headlines at this moment, just in case.
EM: Uuf, if they don’t get out of the group, they’re going to criticize Tata Martino strongly, but I think it will ‘be worth three kilos’ to him as we say in Mexico because he’s going to leave.
CH: It will be seen as a massive failure, and although I think judging a full process just on World Cup results alone is an imperfect measure, it’ll be used as a high-profile example of what has been widely perceived as a disappointing era for Mexico under Martino.
Which is a shame because there was such a promising start to the process when he stepped in during 2019, but even Martino himself has admitted in recent months that Mexico aren’t at the same level they once were 2-3 years back.
EM: They’re going to demand change: The fans, the press. Everyone will demand changes to the competition system, the number of foreign players in Liga MX.
These players will end up getting killed, especially the leaders like Guardado, Ochoa, Moreno, Herrera. They’re going to be named as the biggest guilty parties for this catastrophe, whether they play well or poorly, they’ll be called the architects of the disaster because for some time the fans are against them.
They’ll blame Funes Mori as well, but the fans will ask for changes.
What will the reaction of Mexican fans in the United States? That’s a big question because at the end of the day they are the biggest consumers of the product called the Mexico National Team and they’re the ones who would really have to punish the national team because it’s for the Mexican fans in the U.S. and not as much for Mexicans in Mexico, so we’d have to see their reaction and know how they punish the Mexican team for real change to exist.