🏆 Could there still be chaos in Concacaf W Championship qualification?
It's been chalk so far, but the final window could yet provide a few surprises.
This is the region of Concachaos, of ConcacAFterDark, of days so crazy you must Concacaffeinate to get through them. So, why does the W Championship qualification feel like it’s on decaf?
Heading into the final window - an extended international date with matches beginning tomorrow and concluding April 18 - the favored team in each of the six groups to get through sits in first or in second place with a game in hand.
There should be drama. After all, just one team from each group gets through to the W Championship this winter where the U.S. and Canada await. But so far the favorites have taken care of business with the upstarts unable to break through and cause real issues.
Here’s a look at the group races to watch, where the chaos could come from and if there’s an historic surprise in the works:
Thursday stakes
After making the 2023 Women’s World Cup, both Haiti and Panama are expected to get to the W Championship. Both are 2-0-0 thus far, with new Haiti manager Pia Sundhage engineering a 2-0 victory last month in her debut, a tricky trip to Paramaribo against a new-look Suriname.
But the window opens Thursday with both 2023 participants facing winnable but high-stakes contests.
Unable to play at home because of (sadly still escalating) gang violence, Haiti has set up shop in Guadeloupe where it hosts Anguilla. A win in that match, expected to be academic, will set up an April 17 showdown with the Dominican Republic. If Haiti wins that game or it finishes in a draw, it will go into the final round of qualification. Slip up in either game, though, and the DR will be happy to go through.
Panama is in the same scenario, though unlike Anguilla its Thursday opponent, Aruba, is still mathematically alive to go through. Few expect Panama to falter - at least not before the final day match with Cuba - but it is possible. Panama is without both Marta Cox AND Lineth Cedeño as the stars suffered ACL injuries in the late February/early March stretch but still is the heavy favorite to move on.
Let’s be direct
In the only four-team group of qualification it all comes down to the April 17 match in Trinidad and Tobago with the Soca Princesses hosting El Salvador.
T&T’s draw with Honduras last month means a stalemate would send El Salvador through as well.
La Selecta going through would be remarkable, even though it may be expected given recent results.
“I don’t like to say we’ve been successful because we still have a long way to go, but we’ve achieved a lot. When I took over the national team, I remember it had won three matches in 15 years. Now, it’s different,” El Salvador manager Eric Acuña said in a recent interview on Salvadoran television.
Still, even the manager says it helps to be realistic about the chances of winning a quarterfinal and going directly to Brazil 2027.
“We’re so committed. I’m not saying we’re going to the World Cup,” he said. “That’d be a lie. You don’t do that. You earn respect with sanity and the reality is there are great teams like the U.S., Canada, Costa Rica but we can promise that if the the team loses, it will lose having given everything.”
And his team would likely play the U.S. or Canada in the quarterfinals. El Salvador is currently the 11th-ranked Concacaf team in the FIFA rankings and would need Cuba AND the Dominican Republic to qualify in order to set up a matchup with the No. 3 seeded team rather than the USWNT or CanWNT.
But El Salvador has to get there first by getting a result in Trinidad and Tobago next weekend.
Where the chaos will come?
When the draw came, Guatemala wasn’t surprised. Their path always seems to cross Costa Rica’s. The Central American countries are again on a collision course, and only one will go to the W Championship.
Before their April 18 meeting in San Jose, however, Costa Rica has a critical contest with the Cayman Islands - also taking place at home.
Guatemala won their match with the Cayman Islands 13-0, meaning the Chapines’ goal difference is currently +22. Costa Rica will need to match or better that if it’s going to get through with a draw.
While Costa Rica historically has been the stronger team between the two, games like a 2-1 away win over Grenada (which Guatemala dispatched 6-0 at home) have raised questions about whether or not Costa Rica is still the power it once was.
Being at home and having history on their side should help Las Ticas and relatively new manager Lindsay Camila, but Guatemala is working to be a big hurdle to get over.
“My life’s goal is to get to a World Cup quarterfinal with Costa Rica,” Camila told the federation’s site this week. That won’t happen if Costa Rica can’t book its place in the W Championship quarterfinals in this window.
Reggae Girlz responsibility
Unlike other Mexico, Haiti and Panama, Jamaica is on the top of its group despite having played only twice so far this campaign. A win over Antigua and Barbuda and a draw with (still alive) Guyana would be good enough to move on.
That is, of course, not the goal for a team that counts on the services of one of the best players in the world in Khadija “Bunny” Shaw and that made the knockout round of the 2023 World Cup.
Being back at home for the first time since 2024 is part of Jamaica’s motivation
“The players haven’t been in for over a year now. I know they’re excited to come in and play in front of the Jamaican people,” manager Hubert Busby said. “Obviously we’re excited for the fact we can be back on home soil, and I know we’ll have a good crowd at both games. Looking forward to the two matches in the upcoming weeks.”
With the disappointment of the men’s team falling short of the 2026 World Cup still fresh, the Reggae Girlz will be looking for six points and a convincing statement that they’ll contend to be back on the game’s biggest stage.
A shock in store?
Mexico has missed out on the last two Women’s World Cups, falling short in the final round of qualification on both U.S. and Mexican soil. Now, it’s hosting the final two matches of the penultimate round of qualification, with the U.S. Virgin Islands visiting Zacatecas and Puerto Rico coming to Toluca.
El Tri should thump the USVI to leapfrog PR and top the group heading into the final day. But Puerto Rico has been impressive, winning all three of its matches and - like Mexico thus far - keeping a clean sheet in all of its games.
Puerto Rico has been quietly excellent in 2025 and 2026, with forward Danielle Marcano and midfielder Maria Tapia among relatively new faces helping propel the senior team forward
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But facing Mexico in the Bombonera will be a different level.
Last cycle, Puerto Rico fell 6-0 to Mexico on the final day in the same scenario. The draw has put it against Mexico once again. We’ll see if the islanders can produce a shock.
Back soon with some CCC quarterfinal first leg impressions!