🇨🇦🇯🇲🇵🇦🇸🇻🇭🇹🤔 Gold Cup preview: Can someone else win this thing?
The U.S. & Mexico have dominated. Will anyone change that? PLUS: Other pressing questions about the continental championship
Mexico is a mess. The United States sent an alternate squad.
One of the two North American rivals has won each of the last 11 editions of the Concacaf Gold Cup. Right now, though, they’re much more focused on 2026 than anything happening this summer.
So, surely this should be the tournament in which someone else wins the continental crown.
Yet, in the same scenario two years ago, a less messy Mexico and a more alternate United States squared off in the final in Las Vegas with the U.S. winning its seventh trophy.
For that not to happen again, someone would have to emerge as a contender.
There are plenty of teams in the region who bring talented rosters, but ahead of Saturday’s late-night opener the question is whether a real contender can emerge to end 23 years of United States or Mexican dominance.
So far, the answer looks like no.
After topping the World Cup qualification standings, Canada failed to pick up a point at the actual World Cup. It fell to the U.S. 2-0 in the Concacaf Nations League final. Six of its biggest stars returned to Europe after that tournament - though some fans are wondering if it should’ve been even more players, with a new generation pushing for more opportunities than it’s getting.
Canada’s men’s squad had circled this summer as the best chance to lift a trophy for the first time since the historic run in 2000. The roster is getting better and better, but this month’s failure combined with the quarterfinal exit in 2019 and the near-miss in the 2021 semifinals make it tough to have confidence Canada can win silverware without Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Cyle Larin or Alistair Johnston - even if Stephen Eustáquio, Lucas Cavallini and Milan Borjan are involved.
Jamaica has a roster stocked with Premier League talent. Their front three could be Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey, West Ham’s Michail Antonio and Everton’s Demarai Gray, who trained with the Reggae Boyz for the first time Thursday.
“This is probably the strongest Jamaica side the United States has ever faced,” U.S. goalkeeper Matt Turner said. “I think they’re a lot better on the ball than they probably used to be. It’s a strong team with strong individuals. We’re hoping our collective is stronger.”
That star trio, plus goalkeeper Andre Blake, center back Ethan Pinnock and other key pieces weren’t part of a pair of friendly matches in Austria. But defeats to Qatar and Jordan marked the ninth and tenth consecutive matches in which the Reggae Boyz failed to earn a victory.
Clearly, it will be a different Jamaica on the field for the Gold Cup. Will it be that different of a Jamaica that a team that hasn’t won in 10 can suddenly string six wins together?
They have a better chance than most Central American teams.
While Panama continues to trend upward, it struggled to show us anything new in the CNL Final Four, falling to Canada in a lopsided semifinal before losing to Mexico in the third-place game.
Costa Rica and El Salvador both come in struggling in their pre-tournament friendly matches: The Ticos more than La Selecta, which at least found a 1-1 draw with Jurgen Klinsmann’s South Korea thanks to a goal from Alex Roldan. That it came after a 6-0 loss to Japan made it all the more critical. El Salvador had a good Gold Cup last time around but have struggled to take the next steps and get past the region’s top-tier teams.
Costa Rica used to be in that top tier but need to prove in this tournament they still are after struggling at the World Cup, missing the CNL Final Four and falling to Guatemala and Ecuador in June friendly matches. With Keylor Navas injured, the Band-Aid that has covered over many of the team’s issues is ripped off. And, it is painful.
With many of the young rising stars left off after playing in the Maurice Revello Tournament in Toulon - a tournament that saw Panama win and Mexico finish runner-up - expect more of the same from Costa Rica.
What about Haiti? The core is good, and Les Grenadiers rolled through their League B group in the Nations League without breaking a sweat. But the federation couldn’t come to an agreement to keep Jean-Jacques Pierre on as manager, and now Gabriel Calderon Pellegrino is leading the team. Can he sustain the momentum?
All these teams are aspiring to jump into the region’s top tier with their first-ever (or second, for Canada) Gold Cup title. Yet, there’s a reason
With as many question marks as there are surrounding the squads from Central America and the Caribbean (and, again, Canada), it’s tough to see any breaking through an upsetting the U.S.-Mexico balance.
It’s Concacaf. Anything can happen. But what happens most often is teams from Mexico or the U.S. taking the crown.
Other things to watch:
🇲🇽 I’m not saying Mexico fans are starting to believe in the team again after Jimmy Lozano’s appointment, but I spotted an article asking if the Gold Cup could be Lozano’s trampoline to becoming Mexico’s Lionel Scaloni.
There are questions about Mexico’s squad, particularly with the winger depth hit by injuries to Hirving Lozano, Jesus “Tecatito” Corona and Alexis Vega. Now, midfielder Edson Alvarez has a knock that could keep him out of the opener against Honduras.
As mentioned above, no team is without some question marks, but Mexico does have talent in its team, a fair amount of World Cup experience and some level of understanding of how to work together.
Lozano knows a few of these players from his days leading the Olympic squad. That tournament went well, but not every coaching stint he’s had has worked out.
With no Messi, it doesn’t seem likely Lozano will end up winning the World Cup in 2026, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility he manages well enough to earn another few months as El Tri coach.
🇨🇺 Cuba was unable to take part in the last Gold Cup. The reason why depends on who you ask, but the bottom line is they were not granted visas to get into the country.
This summer, Cuba has undertaken unprecedented preparation, playing a friendly in Chile and another in Uruguay. The hope was to fly directly from Montevideo to Florida where they meet Guatemala on June 27, but the documents are not yet in hand.
That said, speaking with a number of people with knowledge of the situation, there is optimism on all sides the Cuban players will be granted entry to the U.S. and will be able to compete in the Gold Cup.
That’s a more positive outlook than the one sources expressed prior to the team’s trip to South America. If Cuba does make it as planned, they should compete for the second-place slot in Group D - with that first game against Guatemala looking like it could decide things.
If Cuba can't make it, at this late date, do the other three teams in their group just play their other matches?