Is this Concacaf's World Cup qualification format? Would it be good?

It's the weekend. Let's speculate wildly!

Photo from Concacaf.com

There are a lot of problems with the 2022 World Cup, but it’s fun to think about it right now and imagine a world in which we’re once again able to pack into stadiums, hug strangers after goals and just … gather without fear.

We know the coronavirus, which has taken those luxuries away from us at the moment, will change how World Cup qualification looks like as well, but do we now know how Concacaf teams will qualify? No! But we might have a better idea.

Buried in a story by Panamanian reporter and lovely guy Edgardo Vidal about the U-20 Women’s World Cup, set to take place in Costa Rica and Panama, potentially being postponed was this note:

“It’s very likely the format for the Concacaf World Cup qualifiers would be three groups of four teams taken from the FIFA rankings,” Vidal’s source says in the article, which @XabuepTeppepo flagged for the English audience.

Could it be? Sure. It’s a totally reasonable proposal that would fall in line with what Concacaf president Victor Montagliani has said in the past about a World Cup qualification process more fair to teams just outside the Hex. Remember, this cycle the top six teams were to be determined by positions in the FIFA ranking rather than a prior round like in previous cycles. We know Concacaf is going to have to make some decisions about what gets modified, with club soccer coming before international at the moment and the number of international dates continuing to shrink.

It’s also just as reasonable to suppose Concacaf doesn’t know what it’s going to do at this point. While the Costa Rican league is back in action (and giving a soccer-starved region entertaining matches - hopefully Sunday’s Alajuelense-Saprissa will be in that category), Liga MX is developing its plan for the Apertura and MLS is doing whatever MLS is doing with the Orlando bubble concept, international play is a different proposition altogether.

The confederation can’t know when it will be able to fly teams and delegations to other countries once again without those groups going through quarantine when arriving on foreign soil. That’s if all the players can actually make it out of their countries in the first place.

Of course, that’s no reason not to wildly speculate about what this format would look like and if it would be fun! The report says teams finishing atop the groups would qualify directly to the World Cup in Qatar. Then, the best second-place team would have a playoff against the winner of the team that comes out of the Royal Rumble-esque tournament any team from below the top 12 would participate in. (OH MY GAAAWD THAT’S SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS’ MUSIC). The winner of that would then need to beat a team from another confederation in a playoff.

That’s a long road for the team coming out of the playoff - plus the margins are extremely thin for teams not winning their group. But the confederation is going to have to make harsh changes at some point.

The Hex was fun, but it already was on its last legs this time around with the coming expansion of the World Cup field for the North American World Cup in 2026.

It is a shame that we potentially wouldn’t see, say, a meaningful U.S. vs. Mexico game in this format - the first time the regional rivals wouldn’t face each other during qualification since 1994 when the U.S. qualified as the host.

Yet, that might be another thing we have to go without as we come out of the pandemic.

I tossed the groups into the first randomizer that popped up on Google just to see what would happen. This is what happened:

Despite being totally random, three of the four Nations League Final Four end up separated - and you wouldn’t imagine Mexico would be too bothered to be in the same group as Honduras given the current state of things.

Also, unlucky for Antigua and Barbuda to get slotted in a group with Mexico and Honduras, but extremely lucky to get into the picture if this is how the groups are determined. Antigua and Barbuda beat minnow Aruba twice and picked off Guyana at home in Nations League B play, but lost 6-0 to Jamaica in Montego Bay and 5-1 to Guyana when visiting the vaunted grounds of Synthetic Track and Field Facility.

To be fair, no one goes into the storied stadium Synthetic Track and Field Facility and expects to come out unscathed, but it’s not exactly the type of resume you’d expect from a team that could directly qualify for the World Cup by winning six games.

You’d also have high-pressure games between Honduras and El Salvador, you’d get more U.S. vs. Canada contests after the Nations League games between the North Americans and a Group 1 that might be the ‘Group of Death’.

Hypothetical matchups aside, this format essentially takes the Hex vibe into three smaller groups. It’s not ideal, but neither was the format Concacaf was going to use prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. If it becomes safe to play soccer again, this is a format that would give us a lot of good storylines.

What do you think? Like the format? Want to use a fancier randomizer and share your results?Leave a comment, send me a tweet or just reply to this email.

Also, enjoy the hell out of your weekend and pass this along to three of your friends you talk soccer with.