🇲🇽 Let's preview the Liga MX semifinals!

The first kickoff is still 3.5 hours away from when this hit your inbox.

The fact that we’re still waiting for an upset in the Liga MX postseason seems to indicate that things have been straight-forward.

After the whole rigamarole of the play-in, plus a quartet of two-legged quarterfinals, we’ve reached the semis and have No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3.

Not exactly an argument for the zany nature of one of the world’s most fun leagues. Yet, there was very little banal during the actual matches, with the No. 1 seed returning from the brink despite being down to 10 men, the four seed in on a bizarre moment of officiating and the 2-3 seeds thinking plenty about their shared history in playoffs gone by.

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The series begin tonight, so let’s take a look at both heading into the midweek first legs.

Toluca vs. Tigres

First Leg: Wednesday at El Volcan, 11p ET, US TV: Fox Deportes, Estrella
Second Leg: Saturday at the Nemesio Diez, 9p ET, US TV: Univision/TUDN

The high-flying No. 1 seed Toluca narrowly avoided embarrassment at the quarterfinal stage, so it’s already going better than it did in the Apertura. Now, the Diablos Rojos are starting at a familiar face they have to vanquish to get into the final.

Why Toluca will win: They always have another goal in them

Down in the series and down to 10 men, Toluca dug deep and kept pushing for a goal at the raucous Estadio Nemesio Diez. They found one thanks to a determined individual effort from Alexis Vega. They conceded. They whipped up another goal, courtesy of the head of leading scorer Paulinho.

This is a team that has averaged nearly 2.5 goals a game and continues to score - at home, on the road, whenever. There is a sense that if this isn’t a team of destiny, it is a team that can always find that one extra goal it needs to clinch a series.

Why Tigres will win: It’s what they do against Toluca

How much stock do you put into history? Tigres and Toluca have met in six Liguilla series in the last quarter-century, and each time Tigres have been able to move on.

One of those was a one-off play-in match in 2020. The rest were series. Two of them took place in 2003, which does feel like ancient history, but current Tigres manager Guido Pizarro was involved in the Clausura 2023 series just two years ago.

Things, of course, have changed. Maybe no club understands that better than Tigres, which continue to wrestle with their transition from being the old, wily vets into … the even older wily vets now managed by one of the vets who was on the team just a few months ago.

They’ve certainly been here before. Is that enough for them to get past the best team in the regular season and into the final?

The X-Factor: Diego Lainez, Tigres

A player one of Mexico’s most famous commentators nicknamed “Factor” first derisively, then seriously, Lainez may be the most important player in this series.

Toluca’s offensive weapons will show up. Judging from Tigres’ performance against Necaxa - both in the first leg when it escaped with a clean sheet despite conceding good chances and in the second when it escaped conceding only twice - the defense won’t be able to keep Paulinho, Vega and Co. off the scoreboard.

via TigresOficial

So, can Tigres match them? It would’ve been preposterous to ask before, but as Andre-Pierre Gignac continues to miss out, Tigres have been forced to rely on a relatively one-dimensional attack. Juan Brunetta either tries to set up Nico Ibañez or go it alone.

Rumors are that the club is chasing Angel Correa, but the Atletico Madrid attacker obviously wouldn’t join until the summer. Tigres need someone to make an instant impact and give them another weapon in attack. At times this season Lainez has done it - other times they’ve gotten a jolt from Marcelo Flores, Uriel Antuna or another of the attacking players signed to avoid precisely this sort of issue. And yet…here we are, wondering if Tigres will be able to create enough danger to return to the final.

Club América vs. Cruz Azul

First leg: Thursday at the CU, 10p ET US TV: TUDN
Second leg: Sunday at the Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes, 9:15p ET
US TV: Univision/TUDN

You again. The Mexico City rivals will contest another Clásico Joven in the playoffs after last tournament’s controversial semifinal and the previous tournament’s controversial final. They’re controversial because fans of La Maquina (and plenty of other teams) believe the league works in favor of América.

Sometimes it does feel that way, but the back-to-back-to-back titles were, mostly, well-earned. Despite their manager abandoning ship during this tournament, however, this looks like the best team Cruz Azul has put on the pitch - except injury luck hasn’t gone their way this month. After a few players had to miss a game or two here and there, Andres Montaño suffered an ACL and meniscus injury early in the second leg of Cruz Azul’s series with León that the club confirmed will keep him out well into 2026.

Why América will win: They’re a fine-tuned machine … wait, they’re high-soaring Eagles

This is where América shines. After managing the first leg of their quarterfinal against Pachuca, a double from Alejandro Zendejas saw them control the second leg easily and see things out without a fuss after Pachuca went down to 10 men.

Zendejas in a previous showdown with Carlos Rotondi (Photo by Ismael Rosas/Eyepix Group/LightRocket via Getty Images)

América’s defense is difficult to break down, their goalkeeper Luis Malagon is among the best in the league (where you rank him depends on personal preference … and how much trust you put in the advanced metrics) and with Henry Martin back leading the line things once again appear to be clicking going forward, too. That’s what América hopes, at least. They may have dominated this series recently, but the Concacaf Champions Cup elimination at the hands of Cruz Azul is certainly what sits most fresh in the mind. Fans - and some members of América themselves - have excused that defeat because América didn’t have a No. 9 in that series. They need him to make a difference.

Why Cruz Azul will win: Their stingy back line

While Gonzalo Piovi is back to full fitness, Cruz Azul may not even need him in defense to complicate things for América. The three-man back line with Jesus Orozco Chiquete, Erik Lira and Willer Ditta may work well enough for manager Vicente Sanchez to keep things the same - or even go for a refresh as América makes their changes.

Yes, La Maquina conceded two goals in the first leg and one in the second, but looking at who was absent in the first 90 minutes and the game state of the second 90 gives a good window into why León was able to score - and when they weren’t.

With an América team still working on the muscle memory of playing with a true forward after Martin’s long injury absence (which coincided with Rodrigo Aguirre also missing time), Cruz Azul can tighten the screws on América in a way few Mexican teams have been able to do since Andre Jardine’s arrival.

The X-Factor: Mateusz Bogusz

With Montaño out, the winter arrival from LAFC will likely step back into the XI and be asked to play a huge role. His lone goal for Cruz Azul feels very long ago, having come back in February against a Mazatlan team that missed the playoffs.

If Bogusz can show why he was a player who former Cruz Azul manager Martin Anselmi wanted to bring in with the scoring ability and creation he often displayed in MLS, the complexion of the series will change - especially if that happens in the first leg when Cruz Azul will have the strength of the CU behind it.

If not, things could become one-way traffic in a way that even a defense as good as Cruz Azul’s may not be able to cope with. It’s a big test for the 23-year-old. His team’s dreams of a Liga MX-CCC double may depend on him passing it.

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Hey, that was fun! Let’s chat again later this week. Appreciate you reading and telling your friends about Getting CONCACAFed!