Overreactions from MD1 of the final round of Concacaf World Cup qualification
Let's say irresponsible things about Canada or something + MD2 preview
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We were a late Henry Martín goal away from ending the first matchday of the final round of World Cup qualification in the Concacaf region with every single team knotted at one point a piece.
The surprise strike from the América forward narrowly beat Andre Blake and guaranteed at least one team would get a victory from the opening match of the cycle.
Most of you have been reading my work for a while now, so you know I’m not prone to hot takes or overreaction, but I decided to give it a try and, look, I see why people like it.
It’s so fun!
Here are some overreactions from the first matchday of the final round of Concacaf World Cup qualification, but don’t worry! I spend the rest of the time poking holes in the theories.
In the second half of the newsletter, a glance at what we can expect from Sunday’s games.
To the overreactions!
Canada is toast…
The formula remains even with two extra teams added to the final round of World Cup qualification: Win at home, draw on the road and you should be able to secure one of the top three slots granting automatic qualification to the World Cup (OK, you likely will need to win one on the road as well, but we’ll see).
So, with Canada stumbling out of the gates against Honduras, is the chance an automatic spot gone?
Well, the pressure to get points in the other matchups certainly has ratcheted up. Sunday’s match against the U.S. is enormous, and John Herdan also has to think about keeping his team fresh ahead of a now pivotal home spot against El Salvador during the week.
Honduras without Alberth Elis and a Romell Quioto was there for the taking, but while Canada’s criticized defense mostly was solid, the vaunted attack couldn’t get in gear. I thought Jonathan David had one of his worst matches for the national team, and Herdman needs to decide if he and Larin can work well together up top (perhaps in a return to the 3-5-2 formation, though Alistar Johnston was superb in the opener and you want Richie Laryea on the field) or if he’s better off with a lone No. 9 and bringing one off the bench in the second half.
We said before the match it was time for Canada to prove they’re good enough to get through Concacaf’s best and nab a World Cup spot. Early results weren’t encouraging for the fans at BMO Field.
…and so is the USMNT
Perhaps it shouldn’t have surprised me, but I still was a bit puzzled by the negativity from some U.S. fans and former players after the scoreless stalemate in San Salvador.
No, the Americans didn’t look great in their curtain-raiser, and yes there were some missed chances the U.S. could’ve taken advantage of to get all three points. It’s a tough road spot, though, and we knew heading into the match that many players would be getting their first taste not only of the atmosphere in Central America but also some guys are still figuring out the subtle differences in style of play.
Not to pile on to a guy who already has taken a fair bit of criticism, but the best example of this is Sergino Dest. The Barcelona man can (sometimes) hang with La Liga attackers and yet was befuddled by Jairo Henriquez, whose strong Gold Cup helped earn a summer move from Chalatenango to Águila.
I’m not saying stopping Alphonso Davies is more the U.S.’ speed (because, oh boy, this could get interesting), and, while I appreciate the sentiment, I don’t totally buy Tyler Adams’ comments that the U.S. would rather play France or England.
Yet, it is different playing in Concacaf. It’s different playing in qualification. It’s different playing in competitive matches.
A dozen U.S. players played their first World Cup qualification match Thursday. I didn’t fact check it, but from a quick glance I believe nine Mexico players made their WCQ debuts.
The margin for error has slimmed with the point in El Salvador, but I think the young Americans will get it figured out and quickly find their stride.
Mexico is running away with the whole thing
Typical Mexico.
El Tri may have fallen short this summer in the Nations League Final and the Gold Cup Final, but after one match it’s Mexico up top as usual. Clearly, they’ll run away with the top spot.
Except, it wasn’t a great showing from Mexico in a 2-1 win against Jamaica. The Reggae Boyz’ goal was definitely against the run of play, and Jorge Sanchez put it on a platter Shamar Nicholson was all too eager to gobble up.
Goal aside, though, Mexico wasn’t able to break through a Jamaica team missing a dozen of its UK-based players, many of whom are the country’s top stars, because of travel restrictions.
Mexico, like other teams, will be getting boosts as the cycle goes on with Hirving Lozano, Raul Jimenez, Hector Herrera and Hector Moreno among the notable names who will arrive when the going gets tough(er), plus winger Jesus “Tecatito” Corona available Sunday after a late arrival to camp.
They absolutely could top the heap when it’s all said and done in March, but just because they’re the only team with a win doesn’t mean they don’t have plenty to fine-tune as well.
Keylor Navas is the only thing keeping Costa Rica in the hunt
OK, so, this one might be the closest to my true feelings on a team.
Costa Rica will get better from match one - having key players return from injury as soon as Sunday against Mexico will make sure of that. But after an understandably disjointed Gold Cup where Luis Fernando Suarez basically showed up and immediately started managing his team in the continental championship, there still didn’t seem to be a real understanding of the game plan from the Ticos.
The good news is you don’t need to be getting forward to take the pressure off your back line when your goalkeeper is one of the best in the world.
Keylor Navas made a string of great stops on Panama’s attackers. But, starting tomorrow, Costa Rica is going to be going up against teams with better attacking lines than Panama, both this window and going forward.
Suarez has to figure out a way to make his midfield function and get the ball at the feet of the attackers, otherwise it will be Keylor and 10 more players trying to will Costa Rica to a third consecutive World Cup berth.
Sunday Concacaf World Cup qualification preview
So, what should we watch for Sunday? All four games feel absolutely massive, but that’s what World Cup qualification is about. Every game matters.
While the U.S. has a critical contest with Canada, I think the biggest match of the day is Jamaica hosting Panama.
The Reggae Boyz have been the team hardest hit by the COVID-19 travel restrictions but have the full complement of players for this one match and one match only this window.
Their showing against Mexico was OK, but how will the players who suited up vs. El Tri integrate with their England-based teammates - or will Tappa Whitmore try a nearly complete overhaul and lean on the UK-based guys to get the result, giving Thursday’s squad a bit of rest before their trip to Costa Rica?
Panama isn’t the most daunting opponent of the Octagonal, but Thomas Christiansen’s men will be looking to bounce back after dropping two points at home. Panama needs crisper finishing, and perhaps a forward like Jair Catuy will get his chance after Rolando Blackburn and Alfredo Stephens fell flat.
Another enormous game not getting much press in the region (at least in English) is El Salvador hosting Honduras. The Central American rivals each enter with a point, and while La Selecta celebrated holding the U.S. to a draw, the reaction wouldn’t be the same with just a draw against Honduras.
Los Catrachos likely will be without midfielder Alex Lopez after he tweaked something apparently during the celebration after his penalty kick. Anthony Lozano didn’t dress for the opener after coming out of his club match early before arriving in camp. The forward would be a key for a depleted Honduras front line.
Hugo Perez may look to rotate Josh Perez and maybe even Enrico Dueñas into the starting XI to give his team more of an attacking punch from the starting whistle.
Of course, the U.S.-Canada game is huge. For the Americans, it’s a chance to get on track, alleviate some of that pressure and amass points. It would do the same for the Canadians, and in an even bigger way since road points are going to be at a premium the next seven months.
While Canada had that Nations League victory, it does feel like the U.S. still has Canada’s number after a big win in the CNL return fixture and winning the Gold Cup group match between the North American rivals this summer despite not putting their best performance on the field.
Costa Rica hosts Mexico with manager Tata Martino not on the bench for Mexico as he recovers from eye surgery.
As mentioned above, both teams need to show improvement. This is a tricky match for El Tri, with expectations high, but a good Costa Rica team and, obviously, one of the best goalkeepers in the world between the sticks (if Navas doesn’t rest). Mexico should have some more experienced players in the lineup after impressive cameos from many of the bronze medalists in the opener.
Of course, Suarez needs to get his balance right ahead of a pair of home games and with a potentially less difficult match coming against Jamaica minus 12, how he opts to rotate his squad will tell us a lot about how many points he truly thinks his team can win Sunday.
Enjoy the matches! I’ll be back in your inbox Monday if you’re a premium subscriber and later in the week if you’re on the free list!