The draw is done! Group of death? Likely upsets? It's all inside

The road to Qatar is set out. Which teams will...walk down it?

Kurt Schorrer/FIFA via Getty Images

The draw happened! In our pandemic-hit region, it is still a bit difficult to believe we’re going to see World Cup qualification matches in less than two months.

Yet, we now know the matchups for the first round. For the moment, every member of Concacaf is still alive for the 2022 Men’s World Cup and knows what it has to do to get to the final round where it will compete for one of three automatic spots or a bid in an intercontinential playoff.

“I know that many fans and communities in our region continue to face very challenging circumstances,” Concacaf president Victor Montagliani said in a news release. “My thoughts are with them and I hope that the prospect of an exciting World Cup qualification campaign in Concacaf can provide some hope and anticipation during such a difficult time for the world.”

I hope so too. I still am fascinated to see how some of these matches are hosted by countries requiring visitors to quarantine for a certain number of days or even countries that are COVID-free and are keeping their borders closed.

Not only is there the health element, also consider the transportation element. There currently are no commercial flights to a number of countries in the Concacaf region. For some players trying to reach their matches from Europe, one of the only options is to go through the United States. Go there, and you’ll have to quarantine. Teams like El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago have squad options based in places like Vietnam, India and Thailand. I am so glad I am not in charge of figuring out how this all is supposed to work as COVID-19 continues to propagate.

BUT! I hope the matches happen, I hope everyone is safe and I hope fans can be back safely as early as possible in this process.

Let’s say they all happen and take a look at how the groups shaped up:

Which one is the Group of Death?

There is little margin for error for any team in these groups. You’ve got four matches in a tight window of time, and you need to finish on top of the group to extend your chances of making the World Cup. Obviously 25 teams will be eliminated by November 18, but my hunch is that even after the October matchdays, we’ll see teams who have no hope of the Octagonal, much less Qatar (please don’t fact check me, mathematicians).

But, it is a draw, so we are contractually obligated to pick a GROUP OF DEATH. Most of the instant reaction I saw was that Group C will be the toughest, and I can see that. No team in the region is more dependent on Europe-based players than Curacao, so you could expect Remko Bicentini to be without a few important pieces. If that happens, I can definitely see an upset happening, but I can’t help but feel like the respect being given to Guatemala hasn’t totally been earned by the Chapines. They certainly didn’t belong in Nations League C, where they played because of a federation suspension in the preceding years, but I need to see more to be convinced they have true hopes of making the World Cup.

Cuba could be dangerous if Norwich City forward Onel Hernandez and some of the Europe-based players like Alcorcón’s Carlos Vázquez or Tre Fiori’s Joel Apezteguía get called in, but even if the proper authorities allow that, it would surely take a bit of time to gel.

For me, Group B may be the toughest. You now know what Canada can do, and it looks like they’ve got the most difficult teams, Suriname and Bermuda, at home. Both are on the up, with Suriname ready to take a big step forward now that potential dual-nationals are set to be considered. That adds to an already strong attack featuring Ivenzo Comvalius and Gleofilo Vlijter. Canada has enough talent, even beyond Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, to top the group, but it’s just about the most difficult draw you could’ve designed for the…Reds? Is that what we call #CanMNT? Need a cooler nickname.

I think everyone agrees that Groups D, E and F seem a bit more forgivable for the heavy hitters in those groups. While I believe Jacques Passy will do something positive with the Dominican Republic and think the game is growing well in Barbados, both need time to get things moving in the right direction. Panama should be all right.

If Haiti can keep the energy going from its Gold Cup run, I think it’s a lock to emerge from a Group of Life situation.

So, will there be upsets?

I’ll go out on a bit of a limb and say at least one of the seeded teams fails to make it through. Look, the seeded teams should win these groups. That’s why they’re ranked higher. That’s why they’re seeded. But, of course, it doesn’t always happen like that.

In the only all-Caribbean group, Group F, first of all travel and logistics are going to be a nightmare, but second, I think Guyana is a dark horse there. Trinidad and Tobago has a lot swirling around it with the FIFA situation and that’s on top of an absolutely terrible 2019 in which the Soca Warriors managed to win once, against Anguilla. They still have the talent that could take them to the next round, but Guyana and St. Kitts and Nevis (though its Nations League showings were roooough) both should smell blood in the water.

What will El Salvador do? The federation is furious it even has to play in this portion of the competition, but Carlos de los Cobos and his players need to block that out. While tiny, Montserrat has been within one goal of El Salvador in two of their last three (oddly frequent) meetings and Grenada earned Nations League promotion by blowing through its group undefeated. We’ll have to keep an eye on La Selecta and see how their players respond to a challenge the suits don’t think they should have to face.

I’m a bit less intrigued by the schedule for the Octagonal coming out, though it’s nice to have a road map - and to dream of planning a trip to the Azteca for Mexico vs. United States in January 2022 or for the absolute insanity that summer 2021 will bring if we’re truly able to have four World Cup qualification matchdays, plus the Gold Cup qualifying games and the Gold Cup proper within a span of eight weeks or so.

I’m not sure what the big takeaways here are supposed to be, but I do appreciate Concacaf’s effort to make headlines in some of the larger media markets by making sure fans in the U.S., Mexico and Costa Rica were able to have some reason to tune into the draw. It’s also helpful for fans hoping to make it to games. Fingers firmly crossed y’all.

Maybe I’m wrong! Sound off in the comments if you think there’s something sneaky I should notice in the Octagonal schedule. Or, just tell me your Group of Death.

Thanks, as always, for reading and for dropping this story in your group chat. tossing it on Twitter or doing a TikTok dance with this Concacaf newsletter as your green-screen background.