🇺🇸🇲🇽 The present, past & future of the US-Mexico rivalry
PLUS: Canada, Costa Rica clinch their Copa América places
The analysis for tonight’s final is somewhat simple: If the U.S. plays as poorly as it did in a 3-1 semifinal, a match in which it needed a miracle own goal in the last second before dominating extra time, Mexico will lift its first-ever Concacaf Nations League trophy.
El Tri manager Jaime Lozano isn’t practicing his trophy hefts, though.
Instead, he highlighted the depth of the U.S. team. The player pool is currently such that forward Haji Wright was at an airport ready to hop on a flight to Dubai, got a call and boarded a plane for Dallas-Fort Worth instead and scored twice in extra time against Jamaica. That knowledge that any player may stand out at any time has the Mexico boss on high alert heading into the final.
"They’ve got a very complete team and not just 23, 25 players. Two guys go out, two come in and one ends up being practically the hero of the semifinal,” Lozano said Saturday. “I think we’re two teams who respect each other. We’ve faced each other a lot - even though, yes, it’s my first time against them - but it’s soccer. We want to win.
“It’s one of those games where you have to go out with your attention and concentration at its max. Be brave when it’s time to be brave and smart when the situation deserves it too.”
There is no doubt that the U.S. has dominated the very recent history of this rivalry. Mexico’s last win came before the pandemic, a 3-0 victory in which the ‘rising stars’ who entered as substitutes are today’s veterans who must excel in tonight’s final - or who have washed out before reaching the top level. The outgoing generation of Chicharito, Andres Guardado, Jesus “Tecatito” Corona and Hector Herrera were the starters and stars.
A Gold Cup final triumph just months before that was evidence that Mexico had the upper hand. That vanished quickly as the U.S. was able to enjoy the fruits of players’ labor in European academies.
Lozano nodded at the fact Saturday that if development improves in this region it doesn’t matter exactly where players are located geographically. But he, like everyone, can see that right now the situation is that players are not taking those next steps unless they are based abroad.
It was no accident Edson Alvarez, playing weekly with West Ham United, was Mexico’s best player in the semifinal, not only scoring but complicating life for Panama’s talented midfield. Greece-based Orbelin Pineda’s second-half impact made a case for him to get a starting nod Sunday.
Yet, it also is no guarantee that having a bunch of players in clubs in Europe will lead to international success. That’s clear watching back the Americans’ World Cup performances … or Thursday’s showing against a depleted Reggae Boyz squad.
The present of the rivalry is this: Both teams are uncertain how close they are to hitting their ceiling or how they might be able to push past that present cap on success.
“How do you take that next step?” U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter asked Saturday. “It’s just going to be continued development at their clubs, continued development when we’re together and using milestones like this to continue to push the group.”
International soccer will give us milestones, but we have to be patient. The winner of the Nations League tonight will appear to be on the right path. Copa América this summer could show that they’re totally off path. And our once-every-four-years big barometer will be the true test of whether the U.S. or Mexico can truly burst past previous limitations and join the contending pack for a World Cup trophy.
What is the future of the rivalry? These two teams will end up seeing each other several times before 2026, in both official and friendly matches. Mexico’s September window in which it will play OFC’s New Zealand and fellow 2026 World Cup host Canada already shows how the three North American teams will be scrambling to find quality opposition after the Copa América.
The sporting and commercial benefits of a friendly matchup are likely too strong to resist. Plus, with another Nations League and a Gold Cup (and, I guess, a potential Copa América final?) there will be more meetings, more chances for us to use direct matchups as a measuring stick to see which North American power is further along toward its goal of contending for the 2026 World Cup on home soil.
A look back
And now: The past. I love the U.S-Mexico rivalry, and it feels like every chapter provides something interesting. But, to be totally candid, sometimes they can blend together or fade in the memory.
Here’s a quick reminder of the last six, each match to have been played since this newsletter was founded four years ago:
Scoreline: USA 3-0 Mexico
When: June 15, 2023
Why: Concacaf Nations League semifinal
What I wrote: “Thursday night the U.S. danced past Mexico led by a man whose previous head coaching experience came at a stadium with a listed capacity of 1,000 fans.
“The manager’s fault? Drag Pep Guardiola from whatever UEFA Champions celebrating the man is enjoying and give him four days to work with Mexico. The result will be the same.”
How we remember it: In the U.S., it’s a game in which not Berhalter, not Hudson but BJ Callaghan engineered a victory. For Mexico, it’s remembered as the last moment of the Diego Cocca era and the start of this new project. New federation president Juan Carlos Rodriguez acted swiftly, removing Cocca after the CNL - where a nearly empty stadium greeted Mexico for the third-place game - and inserted Jimmy Lozano as the manager despite little time to work ahead of the Gold Cup. Lozano won his first tournament and is in a second final tonight.
Scoreline: USA 1-1 Mexico
When: April 19, 2023
Why: Friendly
What I wrote: “After two games in charge, this is the one in which Mexico manager Diego Cocca decided to put his stamp on the team … The result? A 1-1 draw with the United States in a friendly that at times brought echoes of the 2022 cycle and the frustration fans experienced during it, even as each nation looks to move on.”
How we remember it: This was Cocca vs. Anthony Hudson in a friendly with young, domestic-based players. We do not remember it.
Scoreline: Mexico 0-0 USA
When: March 24, 2022
Why: World Cup qualification
What I wrote: “Mexico controlled the game, the U.S. had the better chances. Both managers liked those facts of Mexico and the United States’ 0-0 draw last night at the Estadio Azteca and also saw plenty they didn’t like. Something else the rivals might not like? These teams still have a lot in common.”
How we remember it: For a long time, it will be remembered for a long time as the last World Cup qualification match at the Azteca (though who knows what will happen in the 2030 cycle). Unfortunately, with Covid-19 numbers back on the rise and a chaotic roll out of the Fan ID program, the atmosphere didn’t meet the level of past WCQ matches at the Azteca.
Scoreline: USA 2-0 Mexico
When: November 12, 2021
Why: World Cup qualification
What I wrote: “There are several reasons the U.S. topped Mexico, but the midfield dominance is one of the most important.”
How we remember it: Another 2-0 and a pivotal point in Mexico’s qualification odyssey as it then went to Edmonton, lost there and had the most tumultuous moments of Tata Martino’s tenure until, well, the end of it.
Scoreline: USA 1-0 Mexico
When: August 1, 2021
Why: Gold Cup Final
What I wrote: “Right now, the United States is on top of the region.
“They won the Gold Cup, the continental championship. They won the Nations League, the new tournament set up as the heavyweight contest when managers from all four participants in the semifinal elected to bring in their best groups. What more is left for the U.S. to prove?”
How we remember it: With Berhalter and Co. opting for an alternate squad in this tournament, it definitely felt that winning the Gold Cup just after winning the Nations League was a crowning moment for the U.S. as the undebatable top team in the region.
Scoreline: USA 3-2 (AET) Mexico
When: June 6, 2021
Why: Concacaf Nations League final
What I wrote: “Best Nations League final ever”
How we remember it: Man, I’m hilarious. This one is definitely remembered for the photo snapped by Adrian Macias with Pulisic shushing the crowd and also for being a great game - looking at the last several, the last outright fun, chaotic US-Mexico game.
Here’s hoping it’s knocked off its perch tonight and replaced by a new best Concacaf Nations League Final
Canada, Costa Rica clinch Copa América places
Canada topped Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 and Costa Rica scored three goals unanswered after a stunning Michaell Chirinos opener for Honduras to beat the Catrachos 3-1 on Saturday night at Toyota Stadium in Frisco.
The win puts Canada into Group A of Copa América alongside Argentina, Peru and Chile while Costa Rica takes its place in Group D with Brazil, Paraguay and Colombia.
It’s an historic tournament. Copa América is the oldest continental championship and one that will feature a Brazil team coming off a win against England and a Colombia team after beating Spain among other great credentials putting it on par with the Euros.
Yet, with both Canada and Costa Rica in spasmodic transitions that take huge steps forward, then stall out completely, being together for a full month is a big prize beyond the ticket to the tournament.
“We’ve got to work together, to play games. The Copa América is a chance to do that, not just qualifying for the tournament which, honestly, doesn’t change anything for me,” Alfaro said. “The chance to see the players for 30 days does change a lot for me. We’re going to play against top-level teams.”
Neither Honduras nor Trinidad and Tobago will have that luxury, with Honduras especially feeling the weight of expectations to make the 2026 World Cup and now needing to do it with its only official games those coming in World Cup qualification and Nations League.
“We feel hugely ashamed we couldn’t give (the Honduras fans) what we wanted,” Honduras manager Reinaldo Rueda said. “We’ve got to rebuild after this test. It’s a tough blow for everyone because of what we wanted and the path we’re on.
“The Copa América would’ve been an intermediate goal on the road to qualifying for the World Cup. It’ll be important that we take it on, take the best from this negative blow and it helps us rebuild the path.”
Meanwhile, Canada’s players return to their clubs knowing they have a friendly to get set for Copa América and then will be game-planning to stop Lionel Messi and Argentina. Will current interim Mauro Biello draw up that game plan? He didn’t say.
Either way, the match will loom large in the minds and imagination of most of the team until the June 20 kickoff.
“It’s only a couple of months away,” defender Alistair Johnston said. “It will be a big summer for us, but that’s international football these days. Every chance, every window there’s some big tournament. That’s what it’s about. You want to be in those big tournaments, and we’re lucky enough to be in Copa América, which will be a special one.”
Back tomorrow with thoughts from the final and your usual Monday Conca-catch-up!