đď¸ Three Concacaf thoughts on the World Cup draw
The hosts came out well, but the rest of the region may struggle.
FIFA says the 2026 Menâs World Cup will be âthe biggest sporting event in historyâ. Maybe. But the World Cup draw Friday was the most World Cup draw ever.
You saw it. Or maybe you didnât, but youâve seen what happened. There were unnecessary musical acts. There were stilted interviews. There were sportswriters complaining on social media. There were skits that showed us not all athletes can be actors. There was ⌠a Peace Prize?
But, eventually, the pots came out, the team names were read off (sometimes even correctly) and we know what the groups look like for the 2026 World Cup.
Here are three thoughts about the hand Concacafâs six teams were dealt:
The hosts get the most
As the groups for the three North American hosts filled, it seemed like things just kept getting better and better. The U.S. saw Australia come up as its Pot 2 pal, avoiding teams like youth-World Cup-stumbling-block and 2022 fourth-place squad Morocco or Colombia and also avoiding potential Pot 3 spoiler Norway.
Instead, the U.S. saw Australia and Paraguay - both of whom the U.S. beat in winter friendlies and teams against which they should hold a talent edge.
All three teams have groups that are yet to be completed as they wait for a team to come through the European playoff. Theyâre in the playoff for a reason, and the winner is hardly pre-determined. That makes it much more difficult to fully analyze the group - with a full 1/4 of it in flux.
Still, Canada ending up in the same group that could see Italy come through definitely makes their path seem harder - even if Concacaf president Victor Montagliani, who is among the more than 1.5 million Canadians with Italian roots, might be thrilled to see that match come together. Simply by virtue of being in a group with two European teams (Switzerland and Qatar round out Group B), their fixtures look tough.
Yet, I think Mexico may actually have ended up with the toughest draw of the hosts. Sure, South Korea is âdownâ compared to some previous years, but the Taegeuk Warriors lost just twice in a 13-game 2025. That included a 2-2 friendly draw with El Tri, and the thought of Son Heung-min, who scored in that contest, running at ⌠Israel Reyes? ⌠will be good for record profits at the pharmacy in Javier Aguirreâs neighborhood as he deals with the heartburn for the next six months.
South Africa defends well, though a full Azteca should be enough to fuel Mexico in an opening game that mirrors the 2010 World Cup opener. (We know Mexico assistant Rafa Marquez, who equalized that match, will be there. Whatâs Siphiwe Tshabalala up to these days?)
But if it is Denmark coming through, that return to the Azteca may be critical for seeding if nothing else.
Overall, all three fans bases have been hoping for a long time that this tournament will be the best showing in years at a World Cup. No one ended up with a draw that is insurmountable. Hopes are in tact, and as the scouting and studying begins, the North American teams will like their chances to not only move on, but to top their groups.
Panama with the chance ⌠to show theyâve grown
Panama is back at the World Cup after missing out on the 2022 tournament. In 2018, they made a proud debut but landed in a difficult group and went home without a point.
The low point was the first half of Panamaâs game against England. The second group game went to the halftime break with the score 5-0 in the Three Lionsâ favor and ended 6-1.
Here we go again.
Panama is once again in Englandâs group, and again it is in a group with two European teams - this time Croatia is there instead of Belgium.
âI think thatâs what we didnât want, or at least having someone from another continent instead of two European teams, but thatâs what happened,â Panama manager Thomas Christiansen told RPC after. âNow, itâs about enjoying these three games we have.â
The Panama team that got to 2018 was filled with veterans who achieved the dream of playing in a World Cup. But even before that tournament, it was clear it would be difficult for them to compete with the worldâs best. Most of those players retired directly after, clearing the way for Panamaâs current generation to come in.
Itâs not fair for one game to be used as a benchmark for growth or stagnation over the course of eight years, but Christiansen knows that not just Panama but the world will be watching to see just how far the top team in Central America has come.
âI just spoke with (England manager) Thomas Tuchel because he was seated next to me,â said Christiansen, who managed Leeds United in England a few years before taking the Panama job. âAfter that, they said we were going to meet them.
âEngland always is a difficult opponent. We know that from the World Cup in Russia. Now itâs about improving on that and competing with them.â
Was there ever an easy draw for Haiti or Curacao?
With FIFA rankings in the 80s and their places firmly in Pot 4, it seems like any group Haiti and Curacao landed in was going to look tough for the Concacaf teams.
And ⌠these groups look tough.
Haiti is in with Brazil, a team that didnât dazzle in World Cup qualification, but is Brazil, and Morocco, a team that did dazzle in World Cup qualification, winning every game and conceding just twice as they look to improve on their fourth-place finish in 2022.
Provided things donât shift radically, Haiti opens against Scotland, which maybe is the game youâd like to have first. Another team ending a long World Cup drought, feeling the weight of being at the tournament and knowing games against two top-11 teams in the FIFA rankings are looming.
Perhaps a win there is enough to get into third place, but Haiti has a lot to do when it comes to preparing in March and ahead of the tournament - plus the logistical hurdle of being from a country on Trumpâs list of banned countries. Remember, the team and staff will be able to get into the U.S. - just like they did for the 2025 Gold Cup. But only Haiti fans already in the U.S. will be able to go to stadiums.
âI know we have a lot of Haitians in the States. So if we play in the Eastern part, maybe it would be interesting for us,â Haiti manager Sebastian Migne told The Athletic in D.C. âWe will find a solution and adaptation. My players are used to playing for a few years now, and we qualified ⌠playing our game(s) all away from our home.â
A Haiti game in Miami, possible for the final group game against Morocco, would be so cool given the huge Haitian community in South Florida. There should be plenty of Haiti fans if they get a Boston game, too.
Iâm yet to visit Haiti, but many Haitians Iâve talked to over the years have emphasized how much people in Haiti like the Brazil national team (and, to a lesser extent, Argentina). That game may break some Haitian TV ratings records!
Curacao - or, as Wayne Gretzky calls it, Curocco - gets a group with European power Germany, with second-place South American qualification finisher Ecuador and with Ivory Coast.
The losses those teams suffered in qualification? Germany dropped that weird one to Slovakia, Ecuador lost at Argentina and at Brazil, and Ivory Coast went undefeated in a group that also included Gabon and the Gambia and did it allowing zero goals.
This is what the World Cup is about, though. Haiti is here for the first time in decades. Curacao is here for the first time ever. This is what they wanted, and while it looks insurmountable, nobody expected them to qualify either.
Here they are.
Elsewhere: Iâve got a column on the United Statesâ dream draw up on Bleacher Report and a piece on Mexicoâs nostalgic but tricky draw over on Yahoo!
Also, The Athletic launched their travel guides to each World Cup host city today. I wrote the pieces on Dallas, where premium subscribers will recognize a few spots from my Nations League Final Four guide, and Monterrey.
Iâm in Fort Lauderdale with MLSsoccer.com for MLS Cup, which is tomorrow! Those stories are over here with my name on the label.
As always, I try to deliver plenty of value here on the newsletter but appreciate yâall clicking over & reminding editors thereâs an audience for my writing!
Back next week, when premium subscribers will get a breakdown of the Liga MX semifinals (second legs are tomorrow) and the Conca-catch-up with all the news from around the region including playoffs in Central America, the upcoming Concacaf Champions Cup draw and more.
I remember hearing that Mexico did well in the previous World Cups it hosted, never losing in the Azteca, only falling when it was forced to travel outside Mexico City. But this time, its second group stage match is in Guadalajara. Not that it has a tough group, but a bad bounce against Korea and it could finish second... and Canada could finish second to Italy... and then Mexico and Canada meet in the Round of 32 in Los Angeles.
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