What to watch for on the last day of WCQ Round 1
Canada, El Salvador & Haiti are among teams playing elimination games
If you missed yesterday’s newsletter making sense of Sunday’s Concacaf Nations League Final, Tuca Ferretti heading to FC Juarez & Trinidad and Tobago’s elimination from World Cup qualification, it’s likely because you are not a premium subscriber. Hit the button above to join the list and get yesterday’s piece plus all future Monday newsletters!
Eighteen Concacaf teams have been eliminated from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Six more teams will join that list Tuesday, with five of the first-round groups coming down to a deciding match today.
The winners of the groups move into the second round, which also takes place this month. That round features home-and-home (though in many case neutral sites will be involved) ties with the three winners from that round joining the U.S., Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras and Jamaica in the final round of World Cup qualification, the ‘octagonal’ set to start in September.
Saint Kitts and Nevis already are through to the next round no matter what happens against Trinidad and Tobago tonight.
Let’s take a look at the other five matches, roughly listed in order of how intriguing I find them, and see whose dreams of Qatar stay alive and who starts planning for Nations League and the next cycle tonight:
As you can see a lot of the games start at the same time, which…is not great! The host association sets that, but sort of wish we’d had a bit more pressure from above or just coordination.
🇨🇼 Curacao vs. 🇬🇹 Guatemala (8 p.m. ET, Paramount+, Telemundo Deportes)
This game showcases two very aspirational teams going head-to-head for a place in the next round. Curacao wants to shock the world and make it to the World Cup. Here’s Patrick Kluivert’s spoken letter to the team saying as much:
And it’s not at all absurd. With Eloy Room as the goalkeeper, a defense featuring Cuco Martina, Darryl Lachman (who reportedly will be available tonight after playing in Australia with his club over the weekend) and Juriën Gaari, plus adding Vurnon Anita in the midfield (or defense) and having an attack with the Bacuna brothers, Elson Hooi and others, Curacao is a team that knows each other well, plays to its strengths and can get results in Concacaf.
Guatemala is a more traditional power in the region, but had to rebuild after the FIFA suspension. They’ve done so slowly but steadily, with frequent mini-camps and friendly matches against neighbors even as the pandemic made getting matches in a challenge. The attack is dependent on forward Darwin Lom, with injuries to Club América’s Jesus Lopez and the Charleston Battery’s Nico Rittmeyer plus long-time midfielder José Manuel Contreras putting the burden on the California United Strikers, er, striker to beat Room
Lom getting chances, plus what Guatemala manager Amarini Villatoro does to neutralize Curacao’s speed on the wings is the key to the match for me - and also how Curacao chooses to attack from wide areas because at times they can get a bit too bogged down by attackers tucking in or playing some of their most dangers players in the middle.
🇨🇦 Canada vs. 🇸🇷 Suriname (9:05 p.m. ET, Paramount+)
You know Canada. You know John Herdman can call on one of Concacaf’s best players in Alphonso Davies and one of the region’s best forwards in Jonathan David. You know the defense is coming along, that many of the Canadians shining in MLS are finding their footing in the national team.
You also know the last time they had a must-win game, they folded, conceding three second-half goals to Haiti in the Gold Cup quarterfinal and going home early.
Suriname is less of a known quantity, which is partly why this match is so fun. Thanks to a political change (more on this soon, this is called a tease), Suriname finally is able to call on players who long have wanted to represent the country but couldn’t because they had a Dutch or other passport. The squad list is impressive: At basically every line there are players with experience in some of Europe’s top leagues.
Yet, Dean Gorré is yet to be tested by a team that has the same quality on its roster the Natio does. So, what’s going to happen Tuesday? Will the team fold, its lack of chemistry making it impossible to stop the Canadians’ dangerous attackers? Or will it rise to the occasion, coming together and pulling off an upset?
No one really knows, which is why this game is so fun.
🇭🇹 Haiti vs. 🇳🇮 Nicaragua (5 p.m. ET, Paramount+, Telemundo Deportes)
The first true test for a pair of young managers, the group has set up for an interesting contest between 2019 Gold Cup semifinalists Haiti and Nicaragua.
Though it’s unlikely we would’ve seen much out of either team that we haven’t already seen, we’ve seen one fewer match from these sides than any other team in the first round because of St. Lucia’s withdrawal.
Haiti manager Jean-Jacques Pierre is likely dealing with the absence of right back Carlens Arcus and attacker Hervé Bazile, who missed Monday training with fitness concerns. Nicaragua coach Juan Vita saw some of his most experienced players, in Juan Barrera and Byron Bonilla, who both scored, and in Carlos Chavarría who created in the middle.
I expect goals in this game, with the big question in my mind whether or not Nicaragua can put up the same numbers as Haiti’s attack. Even without Bazile, Duckens Nazon, Frantzdy Pierrot, Carnejy Antoine and Derrick Etienne Jr. all can put pressure on the Central Americans.
🇵🇦 Panama vs. 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic (9:05 p.m. ET, Paramount+. Telemundo Deportes)
This game lost a bit of luster with the Dominican Republic running into more struggles than expected during the qualification campaign, and not just in the weekend’s draw with Barbados when Manny Rodriguez’s stoppage-time goal kept the DR alive. Los Quisqueyanos edged Dominica by just one goal - though Panama also needed a late charge against the Dominica, so perhaps we’re being overly harsh.
Still, Panama made the World Cup in 2018 and fell just outside the ranking needed to get into the final round of qualification automatically. Playing at home in front of its own fans and having been there for more than a week now since the previous match was also in the Estadio Rod Carew is a big advantage.
So too is the attacking line Panama can put on the field, which got firing practice against Anguilla in a 13-0 win. It’s still veterans Panama is leaning on, with forward Gabriel Torres, winger Alberto Quintero and midfielder Armando Cooper among the scorers against Anguilla. That might be a drawback later in qualification, but right now it’s something of a strength.
The DR will have to get massive performances out of defenders Andrea Bosco and Enmy Peña plus generate more opportunities going forward than they did last weekend to have a hope of getting through.
🇸🇻 El Salvador vs. 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda (9:05 p.m. ET, Paramount+, NBC Universo)
This game lands last on my interest list simply because Antigua and Barbuda struggled to get past Grenada at home. Rhys Browne’s 20th-minute goal should’ve been followed with more goals but the Benna Boys couldn’t finish and of the chances they were able to create.
Antigua also has kept clean sheets the last two times out, but El Salvador looked composed under new manager Hugo Perez, getting contributions from both long-time players like midfielder Marvin Monterrosa and forward Nelson Bonilla but also Josh Perez, who scored in his senior team debut.
Eriq Zavaleta also made his debut, and while it’s tough to say the U.S. Virgin Islands tested La Selecta’s back line, the presence of the Toronto FC player gives El Salvador an extra plus against an Antigua attack spearheaded by 36-year-old Peter Byers.
Perez said his team got a bit desperate in the opening moments against the USVI, so they need to be more clam with the pressure on. Still, El Salvador should be able to take advantage of its talent edge and book a place in the second round.
We’ll review Thursday or Friday plus chat with some of the managers and players involved in the second round. Thanks for reading and telling your friends!