🔮 - Predictions for Concacaf in 2021
Looking into the crystal ball for the new year
When I was in college, I bought a shirt that said “Expect the best, accept the worst.” The shirt was from a very cool online store, and I felt it was a huge sign in my maturation process to be wearing a shirt that was somewhat stylish rather than something I got for free from the student union.
While my fashion sense, luckily, continued to evolve, the saying from that shirt has never been more relevant.
So, as we look ahead to what we’ll see from soccer in the region in 2021, I’m going to expect the best and proceed with optimism.
The pandemic continues to be very ugly, and the realities of it mean not only that it’s pretty unlikely we see stadiums that are both full and safe to be at every round of World Cup qualification. In fact, the speed (extremely slow is still a speed) of vaccine rollouts in North America make it seem more likely we may not see that at all this cycle, which would be a shame.
Yet, it seems like we will at least see soccer in our region, if only on our TV screens. There are friendly matches coming next week (more to come in the newsletter), the qualifiers are on course for March, as are friendly matches for the big teams. Things can and will get better and do so quickly.
So, I’m going to approach the predictions from the perspective that everything will happen. That’s the biggest prediction of all, rooted more in hope than in anything else: That we’re going to have a fantastic and enjoyable year watching soccer in North America, Central America and the Caribbean.
Predictions!
- The Caribbean continues gaining ground on Central America
The story from the 2019 Gold Cup was the rise of the Caribbean, with three island nations making it to the knockout stage along with two Central American countries and all three teams from North America. Haiti made a run to the semifinals. That, coupled with some standout performances in the Nations League, contributed to the idea that the balance of power is shifting.
Look for that to continue in the new year. While some Central American teams will remain strong, the Caribbean will have representatives in the final round of World Cup qualification. Several teams in the region have long-term projects underway that already look to be bearing fruit.
- The United States lifts a trophy … and so does Mexico!
Call this a cop out if you want, but these are my predictions! These teams clearly are the best two in the region once again, with the U.S. enjoying a resurgence after missing the 2018 World Cup thanks to an unprecedented number of young players earning minutes in Europe’s top leagues.
Mexico manager Tata Martino and his American counterpart Gregg Berhalter have tough choices to make this summer. While they won’t enter World Cup qualification until September, they still have the Nations League Final Four, the Gold Cup and later the Olympics to balance. You probably aren’t going to be able to get Weston McKinnie or Diego Lainez there for all three.
Those challenges, plus a legitimate question about which senior team will be better in this cycle and the next, mean we’ll see some strong matches between them this summer, in qualification and down the road. I think one ends up with the Nations League title and the other lifts the Gold Cup.
- A Concacaf team makes the Olympic final
The U.S., Mexico and Costa Rica all are in the same group, so one of those teams will be out of the picture before the knockout stage of Concacaf qualification even starts.
Then you have to win your semifinal before the trip to Japan. There are a lot of teams in the region whose U-23 teams I feel good about, though. Again, Mexico and the U.S. look to be leading the charge, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in a final rematch after meeting at the group stage.
Mexico is the favorite for me, with Tata Martino working with manager Jaime Lozano for months now to make sure that this group is ready with frequent camps and a clear understanding of the playing style. The center-back duo of Cesar Montes and Johan Vazquez has years of first-team experience as do attackers JJ Macias, Uriel Antuna, Roberto Alvarado and Sebastian Cordova. Add in a few overage players, and El Tri may be able to earn its way onto the medal stand, nearly a decade after its historic gold.
But the U.S. won’t be half bad either. Guys like Djordje Mihailovic and Ulysses Llanez also boast plenty of experience, as do Reggie Cannon and Mark McKenzie at the back. There are some weak points in each team, but if they get through qualification and cover those gaps with the overage selections, it could be a strong summer for Concacaf in Tokyo.
- The surprise team that advances in World Cup qualification is…
I wrote a reaction to the draw, and not much has changed. I think Canada’s group is tough, but it will get through. I think Panama and Haiti should feel pretty comfortable. In Group C, Cuba will surprise but it’s down to the winner of Guatemala-Curacao.
That leaves us with Group A and Group F. El Salvador should roll through Group A, but I’m becoming increasingly concerned that La Selecta’s off-field issues will be brought on the field. On the field, of course, they weren’t exactly dynamite against the United States in that December friendly. But who gets past them? Grenada won its Nations League group, but is the vision still there without Shalrie Joseph? Montserrat is a fun Nations League story, but even with the overseas-based reinforcements, it’s pretty difficult to see an island of around 5,000 people doing it. I think El Salvador suffer a result it shouldn’t but sneaks through.
In Group F, not only do I see a weakened seeded team, I also see a potential upset candidate. Trinidad and Tobago has had federation drama and even without that has one win in its last 16 games. That came against our old friends from Anguilla, the worst-ranked team in the region.
Guyana, on the other hand, came off a 2019 in which it had strong showings in the Nations League, finishing behind Jamaica but even tying the Reggae Boyz during the campaign. Technical director Ian Greenwood has overseen growth on both the men’s and women’s side of the game in the nation, and many elements of the national team are training together at the moment in preparation.
Give me the Golden Jaguars as the Cinderella!
Then, they’d be matched up with the winner of Group A for a ticket into the Octagonal. And, as mentioned, it’s most likely El Salvador. Look, it’s a bit crazy, but the draw breaks for them. They won’t be in Qatar, but Guyana may be one of the last eight teams alive from Concacaf in World Cup qualification.
- Another spoiler makes the CCL semifinals…
Before Olimpia’s run to the last four this year, the last time a Central American team was in the CCL semifinals was back in 2014-15 when Herediano and Alajuelense both made it.
I think it happens again this year, and it’s that very Alajuelense team getting back. LDA has made some impressive moves this offseason, especially up top where they added veteran Johan Venegas from Saprissa and Marcel Hernandez from Cartaginés to a unit that already had talented youth prospect Jurgens Montenegro (should he stick around, of course).
The midfield already was one of the best in Central America, with Bryan Ruiz returning in the summer, and Leonel Moreira is consistent in goal. My question is at the back where it’s a bit of a reunion of the 2014 World Cup team which means, sure, experience, but also means it might be tough for those guys to hang with MLS and Liga MX attackers.
- … but a Mexican team lifts the trophy again
Take your pick. I’ll go with Monterrey.
With a deep squad managed by Javier Aguirre, Rayados should bounce back this year both in the league and on the international level. Crosstown rival Tigres being the holders certainly isn’t going to make this tournament any less important for a club that already has lifted the trophy four times.
The MLS teams are intriguing. The Crew had a phenomenal season and may be getting better with Kevin Molino on board. Atlanta United is exciting with new manager Gabriel Heinze. The Philadelphia Union lost some important pieces and are new to this tournament, but may want to make some noise, and the Portland Timbers are always dangerous in a knockout tournament.
Until an MLS team wins it, though, it’s a Liga MX team’s to lose.
- It’s too soon for the U.S. women’s top spot to be challenged
This year will be another one of celebration for USWNT fans, with the team able to hang a gold medal around its neck in Tokyo. No one in Concacaf, not even Canada, will be able to put a blemish on their record.
That said, that dominance won’t last forever. Concacaf’s new competition for senior women’s national team launches in November of this year. That alone won’t mean the U.S. sees another true challenger rise in the region, but Mexico should become a force as a country full of women who love playing soccer continues to put infrastructure in place and put more money into the domestic league. In Central America, both Costa Rica and Guatemala have players in good leagues abroad, and while Jamaica may be set for a step back, their run to the 2019 World Cup is a reminder that it’s possible for new teams to break through.
Women’s soccer in the region should get to the point where it isn’t a two-team race with the U.S. usually coming out on top, but it won’t get there in 2021.
Quickly taken
News and notes from the Concacaf region. Maybe this will become a weekly feature? Tell me what you think about it in the comments or on Twitter.
🇭🇹 - It has been a tragic and ugly start to 2021 for Haitian soccer. The second leg of the Haitian domestic final was called off because of crowd trouble, and one person reportedly dead after a shooting. Details are relatively scarce, but Haiti-Tempo posted a video of things beginning to turn.
Also, The Guardian published a long feature on Yves Jean-Bart, further detailing the allegations of sexual abuse against underage players. The pieces their team of reporters previously published earned the long-time president of the Haiti FA a lifetime ban from FIFA - though the governing body but a normalization committee into place last month after reports that the 73-year-old still was running things behind the scenes.
🇨🇺 - Cuba could have a big year, with the path clearing for players who didn’t come through the official Cuban system but never defected to join the national team setup. That includes Marcel Hernandez, whose transfer from Cartaginés to Alajuelense was made official Monday. The 31-year-old was named best foreign player in the Costa Rican league in 2020, scoring more goals than anyone else in the Americas with 30 in the calendar year. Here are three:
🇸🇻 - El Salvador' announced Hugo Perez as its U-23 coach. Perez met with senior men’s national team coach Carlos de los Cobos earlier this week.
Hugo Alvarado’s work as scout backed by sporting director Diego Hernriquez already has led to players like former LAFC attacker and current Ibiza forward Josh Perez (Hugo’s nephew) and current San Jose Earthquakes midfielder Eric Calvillo declaring themselves available for the qualification tournament, which likely will take place in March. Expect more players based abroad but eligible for El Salvador to join Perez’s squad.
🇭🇳 - As Olimpia and Marathon prepare for a two-legged series to finally decide the champion of the Apertura, another big Honduran club is hitting the reset button. Motagua bid farewell to forward Rubilio Castillo and defenders Wilmer Crisanto and Felix Crisanto.
Another big name, former national team and Celtic defender Emilio Izaguirre, is looking to leave as well, giving a big interview to Diez about his frustration with manager Diego Vasquez. At 34, Izaguirre was hoping to have a nice ending to his career at the club where it started but now says he’s open to going abroad again to find somewhere he feels valued and appreciated before he hangs up the boots.