🏆 What we learned from the October WCQ window
Plus lingering doubts about Panama & the potential of ZOMBIE JAMAICA?
The matches come fast and furious during the three-matchday windows, leaving us to sort through the games quickly.
Let’s take a look at some things we learned and some things we still don’t know as we close out the October window and look toward November, which will take us across the halfway mark of the final round of WCQ in the Concacaf region:
🇲🇽🇺🇸🇨🇦 North American breakaway on track despite Sunday’s subtle setbacks
After Thursday’s matches, I wrote that I simply couldn’t shake the feeling the three North American sides - Mexico, the U.S. and Canada - would secure the three automatic qualification spots and book their trips to Qatar.
Here we are, a match away from the halfway point and not only do those teams still sit 1, 2, 3 they all are coming off impressive wins Wednesday.
There were strange parallels between the U.S. and Canada victories. Both teams needed all three points at home but started off conceding early goals to their Central American opponents, then keeping possession in their attacking half and having much better chances but not breaking through until let in the first half. Canada poured it on late as the Alphonso Davies show took center stage.
Did I have some doubts Sunday, after the U.S. put in a flat performance and fell to Panama on the road and Canada couldn’t find a way through against Jamaica? Certainly.
Did I have more doubts as Canada struggled to score, remembering the team still has all four trips to Central America still on the calendar? You bet.
Do I expect some twists and turns? Some nervous moments for these top teams? Sure.
Long-time readers of this newsletter will know no one has more respect and appreciation for what teams in the region are doing regardless of their FIFA ranking. Even so, the ‘powers’ are a cut above, and tickets to Qatar are theirs to grab.
You saw a clear example in Mexico’s 2-0 win over El Salvador. El Tri didn’t play anything resembling their best game, and La Selecta got a break when Nestor Araujo saw his second yellow card of the night and was off, bringing things to 10 v. 10.
But El Salvador, already missing a number of key players because of injury or suspension, could do little to take advantage of the huge opportunity it was gifted.
Few other teams have the depth to hang with the North American squads, whose reserves typically are more talented than the fringe starters for the Central American squads.
Tactically Thomas Christiansen and Hugo Perez are the only managers you’d trust to be able to game plan in a way savvy enough to counter-act that gap, but not even Perez and his viewer-friendly football could produce any real danger for Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa and Mexico.
🇭🇳 Coito had to go, but will Honduras bounce back?
Three draws and three defeats from six matches, including a draw and two defeats at home are not the formula for making the World Cup. After a tumultuous September, which ended in Honduran players and coaches dodging items their own fans were tossing at them in frustration for a 4-1 loss to the U.S. that saw the visitors score four goals in the second half, Coito went into October knowing he was coaching for his job.
Even so, he stuck to a plan that saw him start with a scoreless draw against Costa Rica. He then used rotations when heading to Mexico, which ended in a 3-0 loss at the Estadio Azteca, only for the ‘fresh’ players to lose 2-0 to Jamaica.
Honduras now sits at the bottom of the table, and with a home game against Panama and a trip to Costa Rica next, it is a good time to make a change and try to shift the tide.
Simply removing a manager, though, doesn’t guarantee a ‘new coach bump,’ but the new boss surely will better utilize the Honduran players currently on the outside of the setup looking in. Still, there will be plenty to fix, and there aren’t that many players not being called in who are at the level needed to make a difference. The current players also will have to play better.
“We know that Mourinho or Guardiola could come here but if we don’t change our attitude and try to do things well, this ship could sink on us,” midfielder Deiby Flores said after the loss to Jamaica. “We’re alive. The important thing is to know we’ve messed up and raise the attitude, which is the most important thing to come out and treat these next games as life or death.”
Rather than one of those Europe-based manager, it’s far more likely Pedro Troglio will be captaining the ship in November. The Argentine manager of Olimpia has been one of the best in Central America at the club level. Other candidates include Diego Vasquez, Troglio’s rival who coaches Motagua, and former Mexico boss Juan Carlos Osorio, who is leading an America de Cali team that has won one of its last five.
🇯🇲 Zombie Reggae Boyz could come back to life
Jamaica entered Wednesday sitting at the bottom of the table with just two points through five matches.
The reported target for manager Tappa Whitmore to keep his job was five points in this window. Yet, after falling just short and getting four, including three in a 2-0 victory over Honduras, it seems that, for now, Coito will not have company.
While doubts about Tappa will linger, there actually is a compelling case for consistency in Jamaica.
The Reggae Boyz have the most back-loaded home slate of any team in the Octagonal, with just two of their seven home matches in the rear-view and only one more - a visit from the U.S. - coming in November.
That means in the final three windows, Jamaica will have four home matches. These are hardly guaranteed points (the home game after the Americans’ visit is against Mexico), but it’s possible Jamaica’s record can improve.
Add in the fact that unlike the rest of the teams in the region, Jamaica is yet to have fans at home but should have at least some number of vaccinated fans at Independence Park in the November window. Jamaica is yet to truly feel a home-field advantage, something critical in World Cup qualification.
There also is the likely addition of several UK-based players who either have stayed away entirely or have been unable to travel because of pressure from clubs or red list complications.
Simply between West Ham forward Michail Antonio, Aston Villa attacker Leon Bailey, Preston North End midfielder Daniel Johnson, Derby County midfielder Ravel Morrison, Brentford center back Ethan Pinnock and Reading center back Liam Moore, you likely have seven players who would see the field in a three-match matchday if not start most matches.
The hole may be too deep for Jamaica to reasonably make the automatic places, but the sole Caribbean club remaining will still have something to say.
🇵🇦 Did we learn anything about Panama?
Before the window, one of the five questions I asked was whether or not Panama is ‘powerful or pyrite’:
After the window, well, I’m still not sure.
Panama still sits fourth and was solid if not spectacular against the United States in a 1-0 win. But Panama struggled not only in the second half against Canada, understandably given the team’s tired legs and Canada’s attacking strength, but also in El Salvador to open the month.
Rolando Blackburn now has three goals in six matches, trying to convince he’s the answer to the Central Americans’ finishing issues.
More reinforcements are coming. Forward Cecilio Waterman, center back Andres Andrade and midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla all returned to training with their clubs during the international break despite not being fit for the October games. The trio should return for November, helping the team’s depth.
I don’t think Panama breaks into the top three and qualifies automatically once again, but there’s plenty to like about this team. The sting of the two away defeats this window is lessened by Thomas Christiansen’s men having secured three points against Jamaica in September.
Eventually, however, Panama will need to get a result somewhere that isn’t at home or against, at the time, the worst team in the table.
The midfield of the squad can be a strength, especially after Cristian Martinez did his best Carrasquilla impression against the U.S. We’re yet to see the top-line center-back pairing.
Panama may be the team to land in the playoff or make things interesting for the third-place team. At the moment, however, it still has plenty to prove.
📆 November is gonna be good
Obviously this newsletter will have lots of coverage building up to the November games, but even though we get only two games from each team rather than three, the matchups set up for a fantastic month:
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