4️⃣ Things to watch as the Concacaf Nations League returns
Storylines I'm interested in from League A down to League C
Whether you view it as the fun aunt of the international soccer calendar or a nuisance that keeps stopping by to ruin dinner, the Concacaf Nations League is back!
Things kick off this afternoon as Anguilla hosts Dominica in League C - a game it is mathematically impossible to get more Concacaf Nations League League C than. Every team is representing their country, many are playing in front of home crowds for the first time in years and we’ll get a better barometer
Here we go! Four thoughts on what to watch for in the CNL. Also, I think I’ll do a casual daily video series on Twitter spotlighting my game of the day and giving a few thoughts on the other fixtures and results. Follow me there if you don’t already.
Which teams are in the ‘wrong league’ and will show their strength…or weakness?
Sorting teams into the leagues for the first edition was a pretty rapid process. Teams played four matches and then got stuck into massive standings with cut-offs. There were going to be some squads missing players, teams who excelled because of a manager who left and other ‘corrections’ the first time around.
One was obvious: Guatemala never belonged in League C and wouldn’t have been there were it not for the suspension of its federation. That ended just as the CNL was taking shape, and Los Chapines made it clear their level was better than League C, rolling through the tournament undefeated and outscoring Puerto Rico and Anguilla 24-0 over four matches.
Guatemala actually looks even better coming into this tournament than it did the last. While its weird Covid-enforced return to the Gold Cup wasn’t earned, its showing there was decent and since then the federation went out and hired a gold-medal-winning manager in Luis Fernando Tena. Tena will benefit from Real Salt Lake attacker Rubio Rubin joining the fold and will seek a quick promotion once again.
Without Rubin and with only two matches from Necaxa’s Antonio de Jesus Lopez, who missed a pair of games recovering from injury, Guatemala went through the first round of World Cup qualification without defeat, failing to advance to the second round only because of goal difference - that despite not conceding in the four matches of the first round.
Today’s tilt in French Guiana will be a good barometer for how much we can expect from Guatemala. Is this a team that could be “the next El Salvador” and push for World Cup qualification or has the hot start under Tena been overly aided by under-strength friendly opponents?
Other much-improved promotion candidates to my eye include Puerto Rico, now free of Guatemala in its group and having played matches consistently, Saint Kitts and Nevis, which was relegated from League B but promptly made the second round of WCQ is another one to watch.
On the other end you have teams who have dipped in form or perhaps overachieved getting to this point. I’m looking at a very tough campaign for Grenada in League A and Barbados in League B as teams that got promoted but then looked out of their depth in the subsequent matches.
Grenada went undefeated through a group with French Guiana, Belize and Saint Kitts and Nevis last time around but the Spice Boys won only one World Cup qualification match and are on a seven-match winless streak dating back to 2020. El Salvador and the United States were not the teams they really wanted to draw.
Barbados showed some green shoots and then hit the skids. An 8-1 loss to Bermuda in the qualification round of Gold Cup seems to have unmoored the team. While the rosters haven’t been full strength, this year’s friendly slate brought one win in five games and most recently saw the Tridents fall 5-0 to Guyana and 9-0 to Trinidad and Tobago, their worst defeat since 1931.
Will we see Caribbean comebacks? What about the mainland Caricom friends?
Simple math shows there will be some Caribbean teams in this tournament that are successful (League C has no non-Caribbean representatives, so there will be four promotions to celebrate).
But the men’s national teams that have formed the power axis in the Caribbean are all seeking bounce-backs.
Just one Caribbean country, Jamaica, made it to the final round of World Cup qualification, and the Reggae Boyz notched only two wins en route to a sixth-place finish in the eight-team round. While that’s better than they started, a 6-0 friendly loss to a non-FIFA national team
Without a number of his England-based stalwarts, Jamaica manager Paul Hall may need to show a tactical dexterity we haven’t seen in some time from a Jamaica coach. There’s often a dependence on the physical defenders who can start plays from the back by passing quickly to speedy wingers who advance the ball forward to the attacking zone. That strategy might not hold against Suriname…or Mexico, so Hall may need to dip into his bag and pull something different out.
At least they’re in League A. Trinidad and Tobago is down bad after getting relegated from a League A group that included Honduras and Martinique and then getting bounced from World Cup qualification in the first round and winning now group matches at the Gold Cup.
After relegation, the Soca Warriors face a sort of stiff test against a Nicaragua team attempting to refocus under manager Marco Antonio Figueroa, plus Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and the Bahamas. Promotion is there, and no other team has Levi Garcia, but that’s what we said in qualification, too.
Haiti also is seeking to return to the top flight. I spoke to manager Jean-Jacques Pierre last month about some of the challenges Haiti is facing, unable to play at home and hardly able to call upon local-based players.
Some of the most interesting teams are the three teams in Concacaf (two of which are part of Caricom, the Caribbean Community, and one of which is a French overseas department) on the South American mainland.
Suriname’s efforts to be allowed to bring in players eligible under FIFA rules but not eligible under Suriname law were successful, with then-manager Dean Gorre spearheading an effort that saw Suriname finish second to Canada in World Cup qualification.
Gorre also coached a team not including those reinforcements to the top of a League B group that now sees them head into the fire of League A - with the prize of a pair of games against Mexico awaiting. New manager Stanley Menzo is yet to coach an official game, and he may be glad it’s a home date Saturday against Jamaica rather than games against El Tri first up on the slate as the team continues to gel under the former Ajax legend.
How will teams qualified for the World Cup use these mandatory matches?
We know the ‘big teams’ in the region generally see the CNL as something of a nuisance. Especially leading up to the World Cup, managers want to control every aspect of their preparation, get the perfect balance of opposition that can mimic World Cup group opponents, decide who deserves those last few slots on the roster.
And then they have to play Grenada or Suriname or Curacao.
Concacaf worked within the structure it could to make sure teams also could play friendly’s like the United States’ last night against Morocco or Mexico’s tonight against Uruguay. And if a team doesn’t get out of the group stage in Qatar, it won’t look back and say it was because it played Grenada instead of, like, Nigeria in the summer or something.
Yet, it will be interesting to watch how the managers of teams headed to the sport’s showpiece tournament deal with a lesser stage but still one on which they’ll want to perform well.
Definitely spare a thought for Costa Rica, which opens CNL play tonight against Panama then plays Martinique and then plays for its World Cup place against New Zealand.
Panama will want to prove that missing out on the World Cup was just an accident, that they’re still among the region’s best and pin a defeat on their Central American rival. They’ll be pressing high, making the Ticos work and looking for goals in transition. Meanwhile, Costa Rica likely will want to get out of the game without injuries (or more players testing positive for Covid like Bryan Ruiz did this week and defender Ian Lawrence did before him).
“In every practice with the players, every situation in which we’ve come together I’m extremely relaxed about them being in a good rhythm. These two matches will be to continue with that competitive rhythm,” Costa Rica manager Luis Fernando Suarez said ahead of the match.
That’s likely the right approach if there is one. You want to win, but making sure players are healthy and the style of play needed for the most important match is coming through might be the most critical.
Which League C team will throw the biggest party?
It’s easy to forget about these teams.
That’s actually what the Nations League is working to solve. By prodding teams into playing regular matches, the CNL is designed to give the smallest Concacaf members something to play for, something to support.
So, who’s going to party in League C?
Anguilla was dealt a blow when Stern John left the head coaching role there to manage Saint Lucia, a team in the same CNL group. Between that and a tightly contested WCQ with Dominica, there are some grudge matches in this tournament for the Spinning Dolphins1 but an historic triumph won’t come easily.
There are clear favorites in Groups B and D, so I’m predicting the best clip of fans celebrating comes from A and C. Lots of neutral sites in A, but I have faith in you, people of Bonaire, Turks and Caicos Islands, Saint Lucia and Dominica.
The Nations League is back. Let’s party.
Not a real nickname