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70-30 is the TUDN sideline reporter's estimate for El Tri fans in the stands compared to Guatemalans. Guatemala fans might have had Mexico beaten in that aspect at the Cotton Bowl during the Gold Cup. Some serious passion starting to show.

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Apr 28, 2022Liked by Jon Arnold

Hmmmm Dinenno fit. Nervous Sounders fan now…

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RIght? A player who, especially in this tournament, just seems to find goals.

I really enjoyed him saying last round that he raised his game for continental competition and seemed a bit confused as to why anyone wouldn't.

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2-0 heading into the hour mark, and the Sounders missed the opportunity to equalize with that Raul Ruidiaz chance that Talavera made a great save on, but...I think that's the one they'll find themselves regretting not finishing off. They've got 30 minutes to find one to close the gap.

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Despite the name of this newsletter and covering...Concacaf...never a huge fan of talking referees. That said, that penalty and the retake in the first half are going to be a massive talking point.

For me, it wasn't a penalty, but the retake - while harsh - is letter of the law.

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Notes so far: Man, it's really raining out there.

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Half-hour for Flores tonight. Maybe Martino isn't as upset as I thought about those 'World Cup or Canada" comments.

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Mexico's XI to face Guatemala tonight: Carlos Acevedo; Kevin Alvarez, Israel Reyes, Jesus Angulo, Erick Aguirre; Erick Sanchez, Luis Chavez, Sebastian Cordova; Alejandro Zendejas, Sani Gimenez, Roberto Alvarado

Guatemala going with Nicholas Hagen; Cristian Jimenez, Gerardo Gordillo, Juan Carlos Pinto, Jose Morales; Oscar Castellanos, Rodrigo Saravia; Carlos Mejia, Alejandro Galindo, Andres Lezcano; Robin Betancourth

Guatemala was stuck in Houston after their friendly on the West Coast, but come in having won their last three friendly matches. Luis Fernando Tena is working to turn the tide there & so far the project is off to a promising start.

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Big night for Reyes in defense and for Chavez, who has been fantastic for Pachuca this year.

Those two make their first-ever starts for Tata Martino, as do Alex Zendejas and Erick Sanchez.

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Any MLS team finally winning in the CCL era will be a sea change... but what's your measuring stick for when MLS could legitimately claim to have overtaken Liga MX (something that's not on the immediate horizon, before anyone accuses me of hubris)? I'd go with whenever MLS wins more CCL titles than Liga MX in a 5-year period.

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It's a great question. My gut was "three titles relatively close to each other" before seeing your answer, which I think is basically the same answer.

I've long said, "You can't claim you're the better league until you are consistently winning this tournament, but you can't win it consistently until you win once." And I think three of five would be consistency.

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Do you think a Seattle win and a potential reasonable showing at the club World Cup next year will motivate more MLS teams to take the competition more seriously? I know they say they take it seriously, but I still get the feeling there are some teams get in and don’t make any effort to do well once there.

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I think the biggest thing that will get MLS teams engaged like the video game meme guy sitting forward - can't post here it seems :( - is the format change. Playing Mexican teams more often will raise the stakes, and those 'rivalry' vibes may feel less manufactured as the Leagues Cup continues to grown and teams see each other more often. I'm not saying it was 'pure, old-fashioned hate' between León and Seattle or anything, but it added a wrinkle.

I'll miss this 'era' of the CCL, but I think generally it's going to be a better tournament once the switch takes effect.

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Apr 28, 2022Liked by Jon Arnold

Obv you’re asking Jon and not me, but I would say no. A coach/GM are gonna prioritize MLS or CCL based on how they see it, and I expect a lot of coaches still have the American idea that winning the domestic trophy counts more. I don’t know why seeing the UCL doesn’t change that, or why American coach Schmetzer prioritizes the CCL (but I’m glad he does!).

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Yeah, that's a good point. Schmetzer & Seattle clearly has prioritized it which is good to see. Also, the fact that the weight for qualification is more on regular season performance than just playoffs probably ensures that the more ambitious clubs should get to the tournament more regularly. Colorado this year was something of an anomaly, but to me they are a prime example of a club not being bothered. I'm not saying you have to or should heavily invest in new players ahead of a CCL tournament, but letting 2-3 of your key pieces go without full replacements isn't good either and the result was pretty embarrassing for them.

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How should Seattle play it tonight? Park the bus and take a 0-0 or even 1-0 loss? Of do they play straight up and push for goals?

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I'll tell you one person who thinks Seattle is going to play their typical game and try to score: Pumas manager Andres Lillini. He said very clearly yesterday he doesn't think the Sounders will sit back and try to defend.

I think he's both right and the fact that the Sounders' natural game isn't as swashbuckling as maybe other MLS teams - even who have made it to this stage - works in their favor. The transitions will be there, especially with the way Alan Mozo goes forward in such an aggressive way. Why not try to hit 'em?

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Seattle needs to not lose by more than one goal. CU will be a cauldron. Few more difficult stadiums in Mexico to go and the bond between fans and the players is particularly strong at present. For Mexico, it’d be nice to see Marcelo Flores come on and impact in the second half, but it feels like Martino has 95 percent of his WC squad already decided.

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I agree that Martino has most of his slots filled. His comments this week that he views 'being in good form' as something that is more over a season than in a few games seems to indicate as much.

Also think Flores' comment that he'd commit were he on the World Cup roster and otherwise would give Canada a look were read harshly by Martino (and plenty of El Tri fans). Maybe because I'm also not a native Spanish speaker, but I felt like Flores spoke very well but perhaps isn't able to elaborate as deeply as he'd like. He's been a difference-maker when he's been in for the youth sides, but, man. No way he makes Qatar unless he starts getting Arsenal minutes, right?

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It’s a tough one with Flores. I think the questions it begs are 1) Is he a generational talent? and, if the answer is yes: 2) Should a generational talent be treated different in the modern game? Can’t do it for every player but prob worth throwing everything at Flores. Hard call though!

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As a fan of Seattle, of MLS, and of CCL, I gotta say all this optimism about Seattle makes me queasy. Have we learned nothing from what happened to Salt Lake, to Toronto? To Montreal, so embarrassed by their home loss they had to change the team’s name? Pumas may be low in the Liga MX table, but they are here in the final, so clearly capable of knocking off superior opposition. No, this final isn’t Seattle’s to lose. I am hyped, but I am steeled. Frankly, I’m going to die in the stadium next Wednesday—the only question is whether I explode in joy or wither away in disappointment.

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Hahaha we will miss you James.

I feel like some of it is 'vibes carryover' where there seemed like the chance of three MLS teams in the semifinals. That, of course, didn't end up happening, but I think people decided it was THE YEAR and, well, it still could be.

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Four! I said four aloud (well, in the comments of Wahl’s Substack). And the soccer gods saw my brazen pride and smote me.

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James, how could you

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mexico gonna win, I actually got seattle tying in first leg then losing

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Wow, the home collapse? In front of Marshawn Lynch?!

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seattle already tied, but history shows that liga mx always wins...

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In front of Raisin! Oh it’s gonna be awful. Those big fuckin’ eyes, crying…

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