👀 What to watch in June's World Cup qualification matches
It's the end of the road for 18 nations. Who will keep the dream alive?
Misery loves company, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos Islands are finally about to get some fellow mopers. World Cup qualification in the Concacaf region resumes today, with Tuesday (June 10) seeing the largest cut of the entire qualification process as the second round draws to a close.
The top two teams in each group will move on to the final round of World Cup qualification. But eighteen teams will see their dream of 2026 die and begin to plan for 2030 (or, more likely, Nations League).
These matches were streamed on Concacaf’s YouTube channel for U.S. viewers last time around. Hopefully that’s still the plan!
Here’s what I’m looking at over the next week:
🇯🇲 🇬🇹 🇩🇴 The rumble in Group D
Key matches: Guatemala v. Dominican Republic (10p ET Friday, Estadio Cementos Progreso in Guatemala City)
Jamaica v. Guatemala (7p ET Tuesday, National Stadium in Kingston)
Group D is the most ‘crowded’ group, with three teams that feel they should be real contenders for the 2026 World Cup fighting for two places.
A resurgent Dominican Republic not only made the Olympics and the Gold Cup but is fighting for 2026 World Cup qualification as well. They have a key matchup Friday night against a Guatemala team that has been trying to lay the groundwork for a run to 2026 for some time.
Luis Fernando Tena told me in a 2022 interview that this World Cup was the goal, and he hasn’t changed his message since then.
Jamaica is breathing easier after already having beaten the DR, 1-0. A win Saturday over the British Virgin Islands, something that should be achievable even with the BVI’s minor upswing, would see them all but clinch a place in the next round.
The pressure, perhaps, is then on Guatemala. So far, the Central Americans only have needed to take care of business against smaller teams. Yet, a near-miss in the 2022 cycle, when it failed to score in a 0-0 draw with Curacao and missed out on the final round because of an inferior goal difference, is still rolling around in their minds. This time, the idea is to get maximum points and head confidently into the third round.
“I think we’re all aware of what’s coming, and above all how important this first game is,” Guatemala forward Darwin Lom said. “It’s something, personally, I’ve been waiting for since the Curacao match in which we weren’t able to get to the World Cup. Now we have another chance and are all ready.”
The bad news for Los Chapines is that the Dominican Republic looks stronger than ever. Manager Marcelo Neveleff has convinced many players to suit up for the DR that fans have long dreamed of seeing in the dark-blue shirt.
Lille regular and former Netherlands prospect Pablo Rosario’s one-time switch was approved this week, giving the DR an instant starter in midfield. Mariano Diaz hasn’t played with a club in a year but still should bring an extra element and lots of experience to the attack. The promising generation of players who were at the Olympics like Peter Gonzalez and Joao Urbáez remain, along with the leadership of Junior Firpo also will be important parts of the qualification efforts.
The draw looked tough enough for Guatemala when it came out. Now, they’re dealing with a ‘new and improved’ DR. Whoever comes out of the Battle for Group D will deserve it - and be two of the favorites to make it to North America in 2026.
‘A’-ppertunity?
Key match: Antigua & Barbuda v. Cuba (3p ET, June 6)
The Group D squads will probably be too busy with their games to cast a wistful look at Group A, but if they did they’d probably be letting out a sigh of frustration and shaking their head.
After Honduras (75 in the FIFA rankings), there is a steep drop off, and the other team that qualifies from Group A will almost certainly be the worst-ranked team in the FIFA rankings to be in the next round.
You probably know Cuba’s story: Should be a better team but constantly dealing with weird administrative quirks, players preferring not to accept call-ups, and others being dropped from the team for political reasons.
Their only points so far are thanks to Cayman Islands opting not to show up and put their players’ U.S. visa status in risk. And the showings in the Gold Cup qualification contests against Trinidad and Tobago? A 2-1 loss and then a 4-0 throttling? It doesn’t exactly scream “World Cup team!”
That said, attacker Onel Hernandez and Spain-born forward Jorge Aguirre are both in this camp - though key pieces in the defense like Yosiel Piedra are not.
Someone has to go through, though.
That’s why even it feels Antigua and Barbuda has an outside shot under new manager Jacques Passy.
So, too, does Bermuda. The Gombey Warriors have a chance to pick up three points against the Cayman Islands. Then, they close out with a trip to Cuba.
Cuba does have the talent to get the second spot, even with some absences. But the second place in the group is wide open for any team, albeit one that will go into Pot 4 in the draw for the final round.
🇸🇻 Can Bolillo’s bunch swing the tide?
Key match: El Salvador v. Suriname (10p ET, Tuesday July 10)
El Salvador has never totally found its footing after parting ways with Hugo Perez, bringing on a pair of Spanish managers who never connected with the fan base nor played good-looking soccer. Both struggled to get good results.
The most costly game in the David Doniga era was a scoreless draw at home against Puerto Rico to start World Cup qualification. The federation carried on, but this year finally made a big swing.
Hernan “Bolillo” Gomez, a manager who led not only Central American squad Panama to the 2018 World Cup but also took Ecuador and his native Colombia to the tournament before that. His stint with Honduras proved he’s not always a miracle-worker, but his arrival was certainly a sign that El Salvador is serious about turning things around.
Gomez ruffled a few feathers upon arrival by saying he would stick with a largely domestic base, but his words revealed an uncomfortable truth for El Salvador. Despite Hugo Alvarado’s best efforts, very few Salvadoran players are playing pro soccer in top leagues.
MLS youngsters Nathan Ordaz and Harold Osorio were called up, as was Salvadoran-Dutch midfielder Enrico Duenas. Beyond that, his options are, indeed, limited.
The fact the team is largely in El Salvador, however, has allowed Gomez and his coaching staff to work up close with the group and bring new players into training camps and friendly matches. There’s work to be done, but the veteran manager thinks his players are starting to get what it will take to succeed at the international level.
“I’m still not happy. In soccer, you’re never satisfied. You’re always going to want,” Gomez said after a 1-1 draw earlier this week in a friendly against Guatemala. “We’ve been with the team only a bit of time, but they’re understanding the idea, which is important.
“We’re going to have a better showing. The guys have understood what we want and understand that sometimes in the international game, you have this desire, tactical order, intensity.”
El Salvador will be expected to roll against Anguilla. In the final match against Suriname, however, things could be more complicated. La Selecta is in the position of rooting for Suriname in the first match, with a victory by Natio, Puerto Rico combined with an El Salvador win over Anguilla meaning they’d need just a point to guarantee they wouldn’t need any help to get in.
Even so, they may want to try to score as much as possible on Anguilla in case it does come down to goal difference - and to get a little positive momentum going for a team that hasn’t had much of it for the last few years.
🇹🇹 Soca Warriors hope to avoid June 2024’s ramifications
Key matches: Trinidad and Tobago v. St. Kitts and Nevis (8:30p ET, June 6)
Costa Rica v. Trinidad and Tobago (10p ET, June 10)
A lot can change in a year. A lot has changed in a year for Trinidad and Tobago, with Dwight Yorke leading the way as manager of the senior men’s national team. Yet, what happened last year will still affect Trinidad and Tobago’s and may dent their hopes of advancing from even this round of World Cup qualification.
T&T opened qualification with a 2-2 draw with Grenada, who earned a point thanks to two goals from Myles Hippolyte. It’s a result that complicates the picture for the Soca Warriors.
Their Unity Cup performances were OK, but not great. It would be a huge disappointment, with Yorke leading the way, to fall short of the final round.
They host St. Kitts and Nevis and must get all three points with a trip to Costa Rica looming.
Any bobble would open the door for Grenada or St. Kitts to pull a surprising leapfrog. T&T should be in control, but they also should’ve won that first game. It’s been a long time since the Grenada stalemante, but that result from a year ago could still haunt them.
Other spoilers - and an eye on the rankings
In Group C, it looks like Haiti and Curacao may meet on the final day both having already qualified for the final round.
It may be smooth sailing for the top two teams in Group D as well, though Guyana could upset things for Nicaragua. The Golden Jaguars have seen both Osaze De Rosario and Omari Glasgow excel in MLS setups but are they’re missing Isiah Jones and other Europe-based stars for these matches. Panama would love to coast into the final day against Nicaragua with the top of the group already sewn up.
All contenders will be keeping an eye on the FIFA rankings, which will decide the pots the two teams that get out of each group go into for the June 12 draw.
There will be three groups of four, and the winners of those groups will go directly to the 2026 World Cup, while the top two second-place finishers are off to the inter-confederation playoffs.
These are my projected pots:
Pot 1:
Panama
Costa Rica
Jamaica
Pot 2:
Honduras
El Salvador
Haiti
Pot 3:
Curacao
Trindad and Tobago
Guatemala
Pot 4:
Nicaragua
Suriname
Cuba
Once those groups are drawn, everything is going to happen fast. Teams play round-robins in September, October and November. We’ll have our three qualifiers in the fall and also know who else’s dream continues.
For now, I’ll keep you updated on this round as some dreams are dashed and others continue. Enjoy the games!